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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

FXUS63 KEAX 171737

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018

Issued at 304 AM CST MON DEC 17 2018

Quiet and pleasant weather continues, kicking off the last shopping 
week before Christmas. Ridging over the region will proceed a 
rather compact 500mb trough digging off the southern Rockies and 
Sangre de Christo mountains of New Mexico. Mid-range guidance 
continues to come into better agreement with the track of the 
500mb trough, with the axis digging as far south as the Trans 
Pecos, lifting over the Edwards Plateau with plentiful moisture 
advection feeding the ArkLaTex/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley. This 
warm air advection regime will keep temperatures well above 
normal, with highs generally in the 50s through mid-week. Rain 
chances will increase through the day, Wednesday, exiting 
eastward through the day Thursday. Cooler temperatures will 
prevail, post frontal, towards the end of the week, with highs in 
the mid to upper 40s for most, still slightly above normal. This 
trend will carry into the weekend, as a psuedo-zonal flow pattern 
sets up for the weekend, ahead of a weak short wave trough passage
on Sunday.


.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CST MON DEC 17 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cirrus will
increase in coverage as it spreads northward out of the southern
Plains but will remain based above 20 kft. Variable wind direction
will settle around S to SE this afternoon, then may back a bit to
the east overnight. Speeds will remain less than 10 kts.