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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
020 
FXUS63 KEAX 151101
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
601 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 328 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

The closed upper low which brought scattered rain showers to the 
area Tuesday has started to open and absorb back into main flow 
aloft. For the morning commute, lingering low-level moisture and 
mist may reduce visibilities slightly. The open shortwave trough 
will slowly advect eastward today, maintaining off and on rain 
chances primarily on an axis from southwest Missouri to north
central to northeast Missouri. Additional rainfall totals will 
approach a tenth of an inch to half an inch, mainly across central
Missouri through the morning and afternoon. Cloud cover will 
remain firmly in place within the deformation zone of the 
departing low. Northwesterly surface flow behind the departing 
surface low will keep temps in check, generally peaking in the 
upper 70s to low 80s across the area today. Conditions may feel a 
bit muggy, however, as dew point values will linger in the low 
70s. Cloud cover will begin to clear this evening from west to 
east, with relatively cooler northwesterly surface flow remaining 
in place until early Thursday morning. Areas of fog are possible
late tonight and early Thursday morning as cloud cover clears over
recently saturated soils. 

For Thursday, a subsequent shortwave trough embedded within 
northwest flow will clip the region by the evening hours. At the 
surface, a trailing cold front will sweep through northern 
Missouri Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Showers and 
thunderstorms will likely form ahead of and along the cold front 
as it pushes south late Thursday into Friday. Some of these storms
may be strong to severe across eastern Kansas and western 
Missouri, given increased westerly wind fields aloft within a
moderately destabilized environment following afternoon surface
heating. Primary impacts will be in the form of strong wind gusts
and isolated large hail Thursday evening. There may also be a few
elevated showers and/or thunderstorms Friday afternoon behind the
frontal boundary, though the best chance for precip will reside 
ahead of and along the front Thursday evening into Friday 
morning, coincident with the passage of the shortwave aloft.

Dry conditions will return for the early weekend, while cloud cover 
clears behind the front early Saturday. Afternoon highs will rise 
into the mid 80s both Saturday and Sunday. The relatively active 
pattern will resume as early as Sunday evening as another mid- 
level trough advances into the Central Plains, bringing with it 
the potential for scattered showers and storms late Sunday through
Monday. Perhaps the most welcome feature will be in the form of 
an advertised strong cold front nosing into the area by the mid- 
week. The progged air mass behind the boundary looks to bring a 
taste of fall to the area with dew points in the upper 50s to low 
60s, and temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT WED AUG 15 2018

Lingering low-level moisture fields will maintain MVFR ceilings,
with periodic reductions to IFR, through the morning hours.
Ceilings will begin to lift to VFR by the early afternoon, though
low-level stratus will persist through the better part of the day
before thinning out near sunset. Environmental conditions may 
promote fog development late Wednesday night into early Thursday 
morning as skies clear atop recently saturated surfaces.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh