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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO (EAX)

                            
841 
FXUS63 KEAX 211946
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
146 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 146 PM CST TUE NOV 21 2017

Brisk north winds prevailing over the region this afternoon
following the passage of a cold front earlier this morning.
Upstream observations show gusty winds as far north as the upper 
Miss Rvr Vly as the main pressure rise couplet continues to slide
southeast with time this afternoon. Given upstream obs along with
the slow movement of the pressure rise couplet, breezy conditions 
will likely continue right into the early evening hours tonight. 
Meanwhile, latest satellite shots show a fair amount of clearing 
across the area this afternoon which will set the stage for strong
radiational cooling later tonight after winds weaken and high 
pressure arrives from the northwest. In fact, we could be looking 
at one of the coldest night of the fall season so far as lows 
tomorrow morning should drop into the upper teens to lower 20s.

From a sensible weather standpoint, very little in the way to get
excited about this week as high pressure remains in control 
through the Thanksgiving holiday. In fact, much of our upcoming
weather will be influenced by building heights aloft as West 
Coast ridging breaks down and warm air slides downstream over the
Great Plains through late week. Based on strong model consensus, 
today's fcst continues the warming trend, and low 70s cannot be 
ruled out for some areas Friday afternoon as well-defined thermal
ridging extends over the area out ahead of a cold front that
should pass late in the day. 

Dry but cooler weather is expected for the weekend as high 
pressure builds down the Miss Rvr Vly and northerly winds briefly
return to the area. Highs both days should top out in the low to 
middle 50s, however warmer values will be possible by Monday out
ahead of another cold front that is expected to move through the 
sometime on Tuesday. With limited moisture however, this passage 
should also be dry given latest model solution trends.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2017

VFR conditions will dominate through the fcst period with gusty
north-northwest winds gradually weakening this evening as high 
pressure approaches. Before then, gusts as high as 30 kts will be
possible early this afternoon before the pressure gradient begins
to relax towards sundown. Otherwise, weak and variable winds will
become the norm after 06z as the aforementioned high takes hold 
of the local weather pattern. 


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32