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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

FXUS63 KICT 222042

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
342 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Severe weather is likely over southeast Kansas for late this 
afternoon through the late evening hours. Very large hail, damaging 
winds, and possibly a few strong to violent tornadoes given the 
favorable environment. 

Meanwhile the signal is consistent in the short range models for 
tonight, with evolution of moisture transport/low level jet focus 
gradually shifting westward. This will cause convection to back-
build then train eastward along the low-level boundary over portions 
of southeast Kansas. Given higher than normal moisture content and 
training of thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are 
possible with locally higher amounts up to 7 inches. This could 
create Significant Flash Flooding!  

The upper pattern will not change much this period with deep upper 
trough hanging out over the western states and strong southwest flow 
aloft streaming across the central plains. This combined with rich 
low-level gulf moisture streaming northward will keep a VERY active 
weather pattern in place for several days across Kansas. Numerous 
showers/storms look to continue on Thursday as moisture transport 
shows no signs of letting up, mainly affecting central and south 
central Kansas. This signal will maintain into Friday and Saturday, 
therefore we will hoist a Flash Flood Watch for central/south 
central Kansas due to more rounds of heavy rainfall possible. The 
flood watch could be extended/expanded by later shifts. These 
additional rounds of showers/storms will only worsen the on-going 
flooding over the region. Severe weather is also expected given 
favorable shear/instability over the region, however due to 
lingering showers/storms through much of this period it could make 
severe weather locations a bit more challenging.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Looking ahead at the beginning of next week, a very broad 
area of High pressure will remain situated over the southeast U.S. 
This will keep the southeast U.S. hot and dry, but will also greatly 
affect the weather across Kansas. Continued southerly return flow 
from the Gulf of Mexico on the western edge of this feature will 
allow moisture to continue to be advected into the area. A couple of 
disturbances in the mid/upper levels will therefore produce several 
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. It is still 
too early to discern the specifics, but early indications are that 
some decent instability and moderately high bulk shear in central 
Kansas could produce some strong to severe storms for Memorial Day 
in the afternoon and evening. This will be something that needs to 
be monitored over the next several days.

Additionally, a cold front is progged to move across the Plains in 
the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, which will keep the pattern 
active and continue chances for thunderstorms, some of which could
be strong or severe.

With multiple chances of showers and storms and continued Gulf 
moisture streaming into the area, flooding concerns will 
unfortunately continue well into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Early this afternoon, VFR conditions should prevail at all
terminals, with the exception of KCNU which remains under an
overcast MVFR deck. As the previous discussion mentioned,
scattered convection is expected to develop this afternoon and
evening. This focus of these thunderstorms will be in in southeast
Kansas, where severe weather is expected including heavy rain,
large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes. In south
central Kansas, a few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible. This will be closely monitored and TAFs will be updated
as needed. Overnight tonight, low level moisture return will bring
MVFR and IFR ceilings into southern portions of the forecast area.


Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

The weather pattern will remain locked in for several days and
only worsen the on-going flooding problems across the region. As a
result, very significant flooding could manifest itself at some
point with this type of weather pattern. Flash flood watches are
in effect for the higher risk areas. 


Wichita-KICT    60  76  67  79 /  40  60  60  60 
Hutchinson      58  72  64  78 /  40  70  80  60 
Newton          59  75  66  77 /  40  60  70  60 
ElDorado        61  78  68  78 /  40  50  40  60 
Winfield-KWLD   63  79  68  80 /  30  40  40  50 
Russell         52  63  56  78 /  40  80  80  30 
Great Bend      54  64  58  78 /  40  80  80  40 
Salina          54  70  63  79 /  30  80  80  50 
McPherson       57  72  63  78 /  40  70  80  50 
Coffeyville     66  83  70  83 /  80  50  10  30 
Chanute         64  82  69  81 /  80  50  20  40 
Iola            64  81  68  81 /  70  50  20  50 
Parsons-KPPF    65  83  69  82 /  80  50  10  30 


Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday 
morning for KSZ069>072-093>096-098>100.

Flash Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday morning 
for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.