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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Las Vegas, NV (VEF)

                            
000
FXUS65 KVEF 191602
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
Issued by National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
902 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures expected today and Thursday 
before an area of low pressure moving into the northern Great Basin 
brings a cooling trend Friday into next week. Gusty winds are 
expected Thursday ahead of the low along with a slight chance of 
showers across central Nevada over the weekend. 

&&

.UPDATE...Mostly clear skies are being observed across the 
forecast area this morning thanks to large scale high pressure 
building over the eastern Pacific and into California. Expect calm
weather today with typical afternoon breezes developing. Current
forecast trends are on track with no updates planned this morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued at 215 AM PDT Wed Jun 19 2019/ 

High pressure building in from the west will bring a drier and more 
stable airmass into the region and push any threat of showers and 
thunderstorms well east of the forecast area. We will likely 
continue to see some flat cumulus develop in the afternoon as some 
moisture remains in the mid levels. Temperatures are expected to 
increase about 3-5 degrees over Tuesday, but still remain well under 
excessive heat criteria. This high pressure will be short lived as 
an area of low pressure digs southeast out of the Pacific Northwest 
Wednesday night and Thursday. As this trough passes to the north we 
can expected to see increasing southwest winds over much of the area 
Thursday. The strongest winds look to occur across northern San 
Bernardino and Clark Counties with wind gusts around 40-50 mph. Have 
gone ahead and issued a wind advisory for these areas for Thursday 
afternoon and evening. Southern Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties 
will have some potential of seeing wind gusts up to 40 mph, but for 
now have left them out of the advisory. 

This trough will bring in cooler temperatures by Friday with 
temperatures falling to below normal readings. Additional cooling 
will be seen Saturday with readings potentially 10-12 degrees below 
normal for this time of year. There is some potential of seeing a 
slight chance of showers Saturday across central Nye and Lincoln 
Counties, but moisture looks to remain rather limited. However, did 
go ahead and throw in at least a slight chance. 

Cool temperatures along with dry conditions look to occur during the 
first half of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Aside from a period of light easterly 
winds this morning, south southwesterly winds can be expected 
through Friday. The strongest gusts of around 35 knots can be 
expected Thursday afternoon and early evening. No operationally 
significant clouds are expected through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Southwesterly winds will start to increase today, with 
gusts of 15 to 25 knots across the Mojave Desert, then peak Thursday 
afternoon with widespread gusts of 30 to 40 knots and higher gusts 
over the mountains. Winds will decrease a bit on Friday, and will 
shift to the north across the southern Great Basin. Aside from a 
slight chance of showers or thunderstorms over Lincoln County 
Thursday and Friday afternoons, few or no operationally significant 
clouds are expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...With rising temperatures and humidity on the 
decline over the week, critical or near critical fire conditions can
be expected Thursday through Saturday. With the highest winds 
expected overnight Thursday into Friday morning, it is unlikely Red 
Flag Warning criteria will be met given that overnight humidity 
recovery will not coincide with wind speeds at or over the 
threshold. An added factor is that reports from the field indicate 
that while fine fuels are dry, heavier fuels are not quite cured 
just yet. ERC values across the area also bolster this point. No 
Fire Weather Watch will be issues at this point, but will make a 
mention of increased wildfire threat in the fire weather forecast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

Update...MCT (NWS Flagstaff)
Discussion....Gorelow 
Aviation......Morgan 
Fire Weather..Lericos

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