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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tulsa, OK (TSA)

                            
000
FXUS64 KTSA 222010
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
310 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...

The main concerns will be focused in the first 12 to 18 hours of 
the forecast. Severe weather potential, some high end possible, as
well as dangerous flash flooding are expected.

Latest surface analysis shows a consolidating frontal zone 
stretching roughly parallel and just north of I-44 this 
afternoon. A mesolow was located near Stillwater. South of the 
front, 70 dewpoints were common. Latest CAM guidance suggests that
warm advection and convergence near the boundary will result in 
convective development by 21Z over central OK. Storms will move 
quickly into northeast OK thru the afternoon and into the evening.
Fifty knots of southwest 500mb flow combined with 70 dewpoints 
and strong instability yield conditions very conducive for 
supercell development and very large hail. Low level hodographs 
this afternoon are not overly impressive, but definitely improve 
by 00Z. Tornado potential would also be maximized along the 
boundary downstream from the mesolow, if it can be maintained.

With time this evening, mainly after 03Z, the boundary layer
should stabilize enough to reduce the tornado potential. However,
continued moisture flux with strengthening low level jet into the
boundary near the KS border should result in continued convective
development with possible training of storms during the overnight.
This will increase the flash flood potential, as these heavy rains
will fall on soils that have already seen widespread 5 to 8 inch
rains earlier in the week. The threat should wane by 12Z Thursday,
with convection focusing to the north and eventually west of our
area as mid level heights and temps rise. Will therefore maintain
the going flash flood watch thru 12Z.

Another boundary will make a push toward our region by Friday,
with increasing storm potential persisting thru the weekend mainly
across northeast OK. By early next week, mid level heights and
temps rise again and will provide another break. The latest ECMWF
is more aggressive and farther south with the ejection of the
western trough next week, bringing a front thru by Tuesday night.
Convection would then linger over portions of the region along the
stalled front into the middle of next week.

Temps will stay above normal thru the period.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  86  71  86 /  80  20  10  20 
FSM   71  89  70  90 /  20   0   0   0 
MLC   73  86  72  86 /  30   0   0   0 
BVO   64  84  69  85 /  80  30  20  30 
FYV   69  83  65  85 /  40  10   0   0 
BYV   68  84  67  87 /  40  10   0   0 
MKO   71  85  69  87 /  50  10   0  10 
MIO   67  84  69  86 /  80  20   0  20 
F10   71  85  70  85 /  50  10  10  10 
HHW   72  87  70  87 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ054>064-066-
     067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30