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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tulsa, OK (TSA)

                            
000
FXUS64 KTSA 220204
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
904 PM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Currently monitoring a few clusters of strong/marginally-severe
thunderstorms moving southeast across southeastern KS. Also
watching more isolated convection to the west of Tulsa that has
formed along a weak pre-frontal convergence line. Storm
extrapolation along with recent HRRR output would put the best
chances of storms across far northeast OK over the next several
hours, and eventually into parts of northwest AR. It's possible
that the stronger storms could produce gusty winds and perhaps
some hail, although expect a weakening trend generally after
midnight.

Have made some near term adjustments to PoPs, otherwise forecast
is in good shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  86  65  85 /  50  20   0   0 
FSM   74  89  67  86 /  30  40  20   0 
MLC   73  88  66  85 /  20  20  10   0 
BVO   72  84  60  83 /  60  30   0   0 
FYV   71  83  59  81 /  50  40  10   0 
BYV   70  84  61  82 /  70  50  10   0 
MKO   72  86  65  84 /  30  30  10   0 
MIO   71  83  62  83 /  80  40   0   0 
F10   73  87  65  85 /  20  20  10   0 
HHW   72  92  68  86 /  10  20  20  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18