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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 150440

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Breezy conditions with warming temperatures continuing into Sunday 
will be the main story for the short term forecast with only slight 
chances for showers and storms late this evening into overnight.

A broad trough is stretched from the Pacific northwest into the New 
England states.  The surface is exhibiting southerly flow regime 
with a lee trough in place.  The focus for the late evening period 
tonight will be a very weak low amplitude shortwave working through 
the northern and portions of the central Plains into the overnight 
period.  Can't rule out a storm or two could flirt with severe 
limits if they do get going as far south as north central Kansas. 
This probability seems low at this time.  But if a storm can reach 
the area, organization appears like it would be minimal with weak 
shear overall this far south of the main wave.  The main threats 
would continue to be hail and wind with any storm.  

Ridging continue to build into the region tomorrow with higher 
heights and mixing allowing for above normal highs into the low to 
mid 90s.  Heat index values become uncomfortable once again for the 
foreseeable future into the upper 90s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A dry period should hold into Wednesday before overall low chances 
of precip begin to re-enter the forecast.  Highs will likely remain 
above normal as ridging is reinforced by a persistent western trough 
deepening over the Pacific coast.  

Several differences in the long range forecast remain with the GFS 
continuing to be the deeper and more intense solution.  Timing is 
also an issue more so with some of the latest runs with the GFS 
tending to be more progressive with eastward progression of systems. 
 As a result, the confidence in the longer range forecast remains 
low.  But it does look like several chances for showers and storms 
may linger through late week into next weekend with surface and 
boundaries wavering back and forth through the area. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Low level wind shear will continue through 14Z at the terminals as
the low level jet remains near 40 kts near 1200 ft to 1300 ft
before weakening after sunrise. Winds forecast to range near 
12 kts with gusts to near 20 kts through 21Z before decreasing to
less than 10 kts by 23Z. VFR conditions are expected as convection
looks to remain isolated and north of the terminals.