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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 242027

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Skies were nearly clear today under modest subsidence in a dry lower 
troposphere behind the upper trough working its way across the upper 
Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered over central 
Oklahoma with some southerly component returning to much of Kansas. 
Dewpoints in the lower 70s were over central portions of Texas. 

The main periods of thunderstorm concerns are Tuesday afternoon and 
night. A shortwave trough passing east over the northern Plains 
drags a weak boundary southeast into Kansas, preceded by a moderate 
low-level jet to bring a rather quick return of a moderately to very 
unstable atmosphere by late afternoon. Convergence along the 
boundary and the degree of instability and thus capping remain 
uncertain, but there is a fairly consistent model signal for at 
least scattered convection. Wind fields are not particularly strong, 
but a deep veering profile suggest some, at least brief, 
organization is possible. Resulting outflow boundaries under another 
modest low-level jet may keep storms continuing through the 
evening with diminishing trends through the night. Brief heavy rains 
should be expected with these storms, but synoptic features do not 
suggest another persistent rainfall event. 

The middle and later periods feature rising heights as an upper low 
develops over the Pacific Northwest. Low-level thermodynamics keep a 
conditionally unstable atmosphere in place though anything more than 
isolated convection is not expected. Moderate south winds will keep 
dewpoints the upper 60s to middle 70s with 850 mb temperatures in 
the 20-25 C range supporting highs in the upper 80s to middle 90s. 
Peak heat indices in the mid 90s around 100 should be common, 
leading to the first prolonged heat of this warm season. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

VFR conditions are expected to continue. Only minor changes to the
overall forecast, with low-level wind shear expected to be the
primary impact.