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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 152330

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
630 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Warm and humid conditions remain in place today and into the 
upcoming week. The only relief may be due to the thermal wind 
along with some influence from the lee trough over the region. 

A broad ridge is centered over the CONUS with the surface ridge 
residing to the southeast of the area.  With the lee trough forecast 
to remain influencing the area for the next few days, at least some 
southwesterly breeze will remain across the area.  This allows for 
some relief to the humid conditions with at least some airflow 
remaining continuous across the region.  Subsidence remains for the 
balance of today and into the early part of the week.  Thus, a dry 
forecast remains in place but likely windy on Tuesday afternoon.

High temperatures this afternoon and Monday will be above normal for 
this time of year with normal being 81 degrees F.  A clear and quiet 
night is in store tonight with a light southerly breeze and lows 
only falling to around 70 F.  

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The forecast area remains in a transition zone by Wednesday and into 
this next weekend.  Still a great deal of spread amongst solutions 
as the upper trough has yet to be well sampled along the west 
coastal areas of the CONUS.  Ensemble solutions also show a great 
deal of variability at this time.  Therefore, have kept with a 
similar forecast as previous days with low predictability and 
several chances for off and on periods of showers and storm 
potential.  Worth noting is that the GFS continues to forecast a 
deeper upper low and exhibits an overall stronger flow pattern and 
return of higher theta-e air with deeper moisture into the Plains 
than do other solutions.  If the trends continue with the positions 
of the upper flow one would expect the best overall shear profiles 
to set up further northwest and north of the region.  This would 
suggest that perhaps less overall hazardous risk may evolve in 
regards to severe weather potential, but due to high moisture 
content and deeper convergence, can't rule out some possible flood 
concern by late week.  However, this probability remain low at this 
time as well.  

Generally expecting the cooler temperatures into the end of the week 
as the ridge axis flattens and shifts east of the area as the 
southern flank of the upper trough impacts the area along with 
possible precipitation chances.  High temperatures fall into the low 
80s which are near normal for this time of year. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Winds light under 10 kts from the southwest to south, then
becoming south around 15Z around 11 kts. VFR expected through the