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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 180922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
422 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

As of 08Z Tuesday morning a weak, midlevel shortwave trough was 
lifting northward across southwest KS. This ascent combined with 
modest WAA has maintained scattered showers/isolated storms across 
the western half of KS. Shower/storm activity has struggled to enter 
the western counties due to a rapid decrease of isentropic ascent 
across eastern KS. As the morning progresses the aforementioned 
shortwave trough will move into northern KS/southern NE. Current 
expectation is for storms to eventually reach north central KS by 
mid-morning. An overall lack of instability should minimize any 
threat for severe wind/hail through the morning. 

Transitioning into the afternoon, attendant surface features to the 
midlevel shortwave will become more defined, with the surface low 
across west-central KS and a weak trough axis extending northeast 
and southwestward. Although mostly cloudy skies should persist 
through the day, sufficient surface heating should erode surface-
based inhibition by early afternoon. Modest midlevel lapse rates 
will contribute to 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A gradual increase of 
wind speeds through the profile combined with some veering (mainly 
in the low-levels) could foster updraft organization and a wind and 
hail threat. In addition, a tornado or 2 cannot be completely ruled 
out, given the veering low-level wind profile near the surface low. 
Any tornado threat looks to be confined along and southwest of a 
line from Emporia to Manhattan to Concordia. Moreover, PWAT values 
are progged to increase to 1.5"+ by afternoon, which will set the 
stage for a heavy rain threat. Fortunately, June hasn't featured 
widespread heavy rain, which allowed for soil moisture content to 
decrease a bit. As a result, do not anticipate a widespread flash-
flooding threat, although some localized flash-flooding is possible. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Shower and storm activity is expected to continue into Wednesday 
afternoon as the shortwave trough slowly progresses eastward. Severe 
storms are not expected through the day Wednesday. Total rainfall 
amounts today through Wednesday are expected to generally range from 
1-2" with some locally higher/lower amounts. Cloud cover and 
precipitation will keep temperatures below average for mid-June 
standards with highs topping out in the 70s and low 80s today and 

An active weather pattern looks to return to the forecast area by 
weeks-end into the upcoming weekend. A longwave midlevel trough will 
develop across the western US with a surface frontal zone across the 
Central Plains. This could set the stage for multiple chances of 
rain through the weekend. Temperatures look to warm throughout the 
week with more June-like values expected. Highs look to near 90 
Thursday/Friday with mid 80s through the weekend into next week. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

A few shorter term models continue to bring in low MVFR/IFR
stratus by 10Z TUE and scatters out the stratus by 15Z TUE. We may
see scattered thunderstorms move into the terminals after 22Z TUE
and continue through the evening hours. Though, some models move
the bulk of the thunderstorms west and south of the terminals
through Tuesday night.