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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 240424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1124 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Upper trof axis this afternoon has advanced to the KS/CO border, 
while area of thunderstorms from yesterday has moved far south and 
east of the forecast area.  Easterly convective outflow at the 
surface this morning has been replaced by westerly winds, with mid 
level drying also aiding in breaking up residual stratus. Broken 
sunny spots have risen into middle upper 70s, while the remainder 
holds in the low to middle 70s.  Dewpoints coming in from the west 
are generally in the 50s to 60s.  Convection noted firing up right 
along the east side of the trof axis, with short term guidance 
bringing this area westward and weakening later this evening over 
our forecast area.  Pockets of showers and possibly thunder over the 
area are mainly in an area of residual convergence and are 
diminishing as winds become west.  Will need to watch convection as 
it moves eastward, with around 1500 J/kg of CAPE developing by 
evening hours, but with lack of a LLJ or other low to mid level 
enhancement, think coverage as it passes will be isolated at best. 
Lows tonight fall to the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

In the wake of the upper trough on Monday expect a dry period to 
ensue along with mostly clear skies. Highs on Monday should range 
from the upper 70s to the lower 80s with dew points mainly in the 
50s will make for pleasant weather. On Tuesday, heights begin to 
rise as warm advection increases by Tuesday night. Models are split 
on the timing of a mid level wave moving across the top of the ridge 
across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas as well as the timing 
of the feature itself. That said, will maintain low pops Tuesday 
afternoon and chance pops on Tuesday night into early Wednesday 

Wednesday night and into next weekend heights gradually rise through 
the period as a 592dm high builds from the southern Rockies into the 
northern Plains. There will be a few small chances for nocturnal 
convection which for the most part look to stay to the west and 
north of the forecast area. Temperatures through the period will be 
characterized by highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s. Heat indices 
for Thursday through Sunday are forecast to range from the mid to 
upper 90s each day. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Scattered MVFR stratus tries to build down towards KMHK based on
latest satellite observations. However the drier advection from 
the west should keep the thicker cloud cover from impacting 
KTOP/KFOE/KMHK with VFR forecast through tomorrow evening.