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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 221711 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1211 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Early this morning isolated convection was occurring south of 
Interstate 70, while a more widespread complex of showers and storms 
were occurring across south central and southeast Kansas into 
southwest Missouri and Oklahoma. More concentrated area of storms 
was occurring within surface to 925 mb front within the theta-e axis 
oriented west to east where layer precipitable water values were 
around two inches. Heavy rainfall so far this morning has been 
mainly south of the forecast area. Radar trends and short range 
convective allowing models suggest scattered activity to continue 
into the mid morning hours. However the threat for locally heavy 
rainfall looks to remain to the south along the Kansas and Oklahoma 
border area today. Therefore will cancel the Flash Flood Watch early 
this morning. That said for today will continue to see scattered 
activity through the morning and then some redevelopment across 
parts of the area this afternoon and tonight. Highest probabilities 
will lay south of I-70 with the best chances further south along 
from southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Other showers and thunderstorms 
will be possible overnight tonight and into Friday morning within a 
zone of mid level frontogenesis that is forecast to slope from north 
central into east central Kansas. Also a weak wave is forecast to 
move from the Texas Panhandle across southern Kansas and Oklahoma 
tonight into early Friday. T^he main frontal boundary is expected to 
remain south near the Oklahoma border on Friday. Northeast winds and 
clouds will keep temperatures in check today with highs from the 
upper 70s to lower 80s. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Precipitation chances will continue into the weekend and then on and 
off through next week. Saturday a mid level trough is forecast to 
move across Kansas Saturday night and Sunday. The resulting mass 
response will see an increase in the moisture and thermal advection 
across eastern and southern Kansas. Northwest flow reestablishes over 
the central Plains this weekend through the end of next week. With 
periodic timing differences between the models with troughs and 
energy moving through the Plains will keep precipitation chances 
below 50 percent for much of the period. Highs look to the be in the 
70s to lower 80s with lows in the 60s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1118 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

MVFR CIGS will remain prevalent at the TAF sites due to remnant
moisture in place just northeast of the diffuse frontal boundary. 
CIGS could rise to just above 3000ft this afternoon but there will
be widespread low VFR stratus around. Scattered -tsra due to 
daytime heating may also develop and be present through sunset but
should end by 3z.