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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 162030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
330 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

As of 20Z Monday afternoon, an expansive midlevel ridge continues to 
reside across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with troughing in the 
west. Midlevel water vapor reveals a shortwave trough lifting 
northeastward across northwestern NE resulting in scattered showers. 
At the surface, a broad trough was positioned across the High Plains 
from eastern NM through the western Dakotas. The benign weather 
pattern is expected to continue through Tuesday with temperatures 
remaining well-above average. Overnight lows tonight will reach the 
70s with highs Tuesday afternoon in the 90s. Coupling the heat with 
the high humidity will yield an another day with heat indicies in 
the upper 90s. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Transitioning into the extended period, a few thunderstorms are 
possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a shortwave 
trough ejects across the Northern Plains shunting the aforementioned 
surface trough into southern NE before stalling. Another round of 
showers/storms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning along the stalled frontal boundary across far northern 
KS/southern NE. Better chances for thunderstorm activity arrive 
this weekend as the main midlevel trough ejects across the 
Northern Plains, shunting the surface frontal boundary into the 
area. Temperatures look to remain well-above average through much 
of the weekend with highs in the 80s and 90s. The previously 
mentioned cold front will likely result in closer-to-normal 
temperatures with highs in the low 80s by Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southerly
winds will remain near 6-12 kts through 00Z before decreasing
through the night and increasing after sunrise Tuesday morning to
9-15 kts. In addition, marginal LLWS conditions are expected 
tonight as a 30-35 kt LLJ near 1 kft overspreads the terminals.