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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

                            
000
FXUS63 KTOP 241744
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

An upper level trough was moving through the mid MO river valley per 
the 07Z water vapor and profiler data. At the surface, a weak cold 
front stretched from south central KS through northwest MO. 

For today the front is expected to continue pushing southeast as it 
increasingly becomes more defuse. Somewhat dryer air is expected to 
remain over the forecast area today thanks to westerly surface 
winds. However forecast soundings indicate some modest CAPE 
developing in the heat of the day as good insolation helps temps 
warm into the lower 80s. So a conditionally unstable airmass is 
progged by the models with little convective inhibition. Fortunately 
general subsidence is anticipated to remain over the area as the 
upper trough exits northeast. So with no lift or forcing for precip, 
the forecast still calls for dry weather. 

By tonight, models show low level warm air advection developing. 
There does not appear to be much in the way of moisture return with 
the warm air so chances for precip look to remain low. The main 
change to the forecast, because of the warm air advection pattern, 
was to bump up surface wind speed and raise min temps a degree or 
two. Lows are expected to be generally in the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Aside from a few thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night, a 
predominately dry and warm week is expected across the forecast 
area. 

By Tuesday morning, surface ridging will have progressed east of the 
area, allowing WAA to return area-wide. A weak surface trough is 
expected to develop from eastern NM to southern IA. This frontal 
zone could be the focus for thunderstorm development late Tuesday 
afternoon into Tuesday night. Anticipate any convective development 
to remain relatively isolated with a weak capping inversion near 800 
mb and little in the way of large scale ascent as midlevel ridging 
builds across the central US. If a thunderstorm is able to develop, 
a very buoyant and modestly sheared environment will be in-place and 
could pose a large hail and damaging wind threat. A 30-40 kt LLJ
could allow convection to grow upscale after sunset and move
southeastward. 

Otherwise, a typical mid-summer pattern is expected through the end 
of the week with the midlevel ridge amplifying. High temperatures 
are progged to reach the low to mid 90s. In addition, boundary layer 
moisture will remain quite high with dew points in the 60s to near 
70. This will result in heat indicies in the upper 90s to near 100 
each afternoon.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

VFR conditions are expected to continue. Only minor changes to the
overall forecast, with low-level wind shear expected to be the
primary impact. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Baerg
AVIATION...65