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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 230830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Surface high pressure was located over Kansas into Missouri this 
morning at 0730Z. Cooler air has filtered into the area with 
temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Light winds and clear skies 
have resulted in some areas of locally dense fog early this morning 
and should continue through 8 am this morning. 

Today will see the early morning fog burn off then expect sunny 
skies through the day. The surface high will move off to the east as 
a ridge moves eastward across Kansas. Return flow to the south will 
occur from west to east today as the surface high moves east into 
Missouri. Temperatures today will be near normal with highs from the 
upper 70s to lower 80s. Moisture will begin to return later tonight 
across western into central Kansas as the low level jet strengthens 
to around 40 kts in western Kansas. Isolated elevated storms may 
develop across parts of western and central Kansas late in the night 
within the moisture and instability axis. Lows tonight will drop into 
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2019

Tuesday a mid and upper level trough is forecast to move across the 
northern and central Plains with the stronger forcing remaining 
across the northern Plains. There is a small chance for some showers 
and storms developing across south central Kansas into northwest 
Missouri Tuesday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes with weak 
inhibition forecast by late afternoon. There is little in the way of 
forcing so if storms develop they are expected to be isolated in 
coverage and will continue with low precipitation chances.

Tuesday night the upper level trough will progress eastward across 
the Plains and into the western Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. A 
cold front is forecast to extend from Minnesota into central and 
southwest Kansas Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms may develop along 
the frontal boundary in the late afternoon and evening hours. With 
the better dynamics to the north along with steepening mid level 
lapse rates scattered thunderstorms may develop along the front. 
Shear and instability will be sufficient for some of the storms to 
be severe with hail and damaging winds the main hazards. Models 
suggest storms will congeal into a line and propagate southeast into 
northeast Kansas into early Wednesday morning. The cold front is 
forecast to move south of the forecast area into southern Kansas by 
afternoon. The frontal boundary will be a focus for storms mainly 
across southeast and south central Kansas.

Small chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early 
Saturday. Models differ with the strength of a mid level trough 
moving across the northern Plains. There is better consensus with 
another frontal boundary moving southeast into Kansas on Friday 
bringing another chance of storms. THunderstorms will be possible 
Thursday night as a warm front moves northeast placing eastern 
Kansas within the warm sector by Friday morning. Instability will 
increase ahead of the approaching cold front Friday into Friday 
night. Mainly dry weather is expected for next weekend. Temperatures 
in the 70s and 80s are  for highs through the period. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the 06z TAFs, main focus is on the potential for areas of fog
to develop overnight into Monday morning (primarily near 
KTOP/KFOE), resulting in MVFR to IFR vis with periods of LIFR vis
possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected.


Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ011-012-