Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 230833

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
333 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

In contrast to nighttime periods of roughly the past week, 
overnight convection has been fairly limited in the local area.  A 
stronger storm in south central Nebraska appears to be being 
enhanced by a modest weak upper wave under the mean upper ridge 
between an upper trough over the northern Rockies and another over 
eastern Canada. High cloud has been moving east to northeast 
downstream of MCS activity in northwest Kansas and northeast 
Oklahoma, and is making lower cloud coverage difficult to discern, 
with the 0Z TOP sounding showing a rather moist lower several 
thousand feet and modest mid-level lapse rates. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Expect the western Kansas convection to struggle as it moves east 
into weaker theta-e advection and a more stable environment, but 
still have some concern for isolated afternoon convection to develop 
locally today in weak ML CIN but also little in the way of forcing 
for ascent. The weakening of the cap will depend on how much 
insolation can develop, with confidence in low cloud trends not 
high. Have kept slight chances in southern areas where the cap 
looks to be weaker. Highs today should again be in the lower to 
middle 80s. The Rockies wave enters the high Plains tonight and 
should bring another round of convection to western and perhaps 
central portions of the state. Instability aloft remains meager with 
an easterly low-level flow continuing and have kept chances for 
this activity reaching the local area small. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

The upper wave continues slowly east Saturday into Sunday with 
slowly increasing storm potential as precipitable water values 
increase to around 1.8 inches and lapse rates steepen somewhat. With 
the nocturnal low-level jet remaining less than 20 knots, convective 
risks remain low however. The damp low to mid levels should keep 
skies relatively cloudy through midday Sunday when the wave pushes 
into Missouri. A deepening upper trough passing through the northern 
Plains brings a cold front through the region Monday and Monday 
night for more likely elevated convection potential. Model 
differences remain in the character of the upper flow to the west 
and northwest into the later portions of the week, with the more 
zonal GFS bringing some potential for WAA-induced elevated activity 
in the mid-week. Have kept some mention of precipitation for much of 
these periods but this could be overdone. Temperatures remain to be 
somewhat below normal. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Expect BKN ceilings with stratus of 3000 to 4000 feet through the
next 12 hours. If there are some breaks light fog may develop at
the terminals. Stratus ceilings may drop to 2500 feet at times
through the 14Z FRI.