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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 232047

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
347 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Cooler temperatures for the balance of the day and evening before 
rebounding tomorrow with short-term showers continuing this 

Remnants of a decaying MCV continues to lift through the region.
As a result, showers have been building over portions of east 
central into far northeastern Kansas. Soundings maintain a wedge 
of low level dry air which has made it difficult for air to become
fully saturated much further northwest of a the I-35 corridor.
Subsequently, most of the returns shown on composite radar loops 
has not been realized near the surface. Weak isentropic ascent  
around the northeastern quadrant of the remnant MCV have resulted 
mainly in reinforced low level stratus over much of the area 
today. All this working together has resulted in lower high 
temperatures through the day. North central areas have managed to 
reach the low 60s with the benefit of some sunshine while east 
central zones have remained rain cooled struggling to see mid 50s.

The main challenge for the overnight period will be if there is fog 
over north central areas or not.  If cloud cover can decrease 
overnight and enough radiational cooling with calm winds can result 
then there may be some patchy fog form.  Right now, it appears that 
clouds may be slow to dissolve and exit the region as closed upper 
low very slowly translates east into Texas through tomorrow in to 
Thursday.  This could keep enough saturation aloft and lift to 
maintain mid to upper cloud cover before finally clearing over the 
entire area takes place late Wednesday.  

Low temperatures through short-term period should maintain mid to 
upper 40s.  Again high temps for Wednesday depend highly on cloud 
cover once again, but right now have gone with low to mid 70s. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

For the longer range forecast, seasonal temperatures and uncertainty 
in overall precipitation seem in store with model spread still 
fairly high.  

More certain part of the forecast is for the latter portion of this 
week as the upper closed low previously mentioned continues to fill 
as it moves east through Texas and ultimately becomes more 
progressive.  Quasi-zone to more northwesterly flow regime sets up 
with overall height rises.  High temps increase progressively as a 
result with 70s and near 80 by the weekend.  The weekend also bring 
about the next Pacific system moving into the region.  With it come 
rain and storm chances into Saturday morning and possibly into the 
early afternoon as it pushes a front through the area.  Best forcing 
appears to be north of the region, so probability for severe weather 
seems low at this time and would likely hinge on any LLJ and how 
strong it would be during the morning hours.  

Monday through Tuesday of next week could see the development of 
potential for severe storms to develop over the region.  However, 
right now, it seems probably too early to talk it up much because of 
fairly wide spread amongst the major synoptic solutions.  Moisture 
return and resulting instability along with shear profiles seem 
favorable but timing and exact positioning of the surface low is 
too hard to pin down this far out. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

MVFR stratus will likely persist this afternoon as a surface
boundary remains just southeast of the area with an area of
surface low pressure slowly lifting along it to the northeast.
This will help reinforce showers across the southeastern half of
forecast area, so have mentioned VCSH for a few hours at KMHK and
the balance of the afternoon and early evening at KTOP/KFOE.
Expecting CIGS to lift as the low passes but could thicken back up
overnight near the KTOP/KFOE terminals. Thinking fog will not be a
concern even near KMHK with enough cloud cover remaining during
the overnight period. Winds will be mainly light and variable