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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

                            
000
FXUS63 KTOP 151139
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
639 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The remnants of Barry skirt the eastern forecast area today, with
the biggest impact being an increase in cloud cover and slightly 
cooler temperatures.

Early morning water vapor imagery showed Tropical Depression 
Barry meandering northward through western Arkansas, embedded 
within a broader longwave, low amplitude ridge of high pressure 
spanning from coast to coast across the southern CONUS. The post- 
tropical circulation of Barry works northward over the next 24 
hours, reaching southwest Missouri by Tuesday morning. Attendant 
low stratus and embedded rain showers were working through 
southern Missouri early this morning and should lift northward 
today. 

The majority of the precipitation should remain east of the low 
track as it lifts through the Ozarks. There is considerable 
uncertainty if any precipitation will reach the far eastern 
forecast area this afternoon. RAP/NAM/GFS point BUFR soundings in 
far eastern Kansas, while depicting a weaker H750 warm nose than 
locations further northwest, fail to erode the inhibition to 
realize much beyond a very shallow region of 0-3 km SBCAPE. Thus, 
while convective temps will be easily reached in eastern Kansas, 
the CU/stratocumulus (even stratus) will be of limited depth. With
the increase in cloud cover, did nudge down highs closer to the 
raw model guidance in eastern Kansas, but most locations should 
still see the mid-80s to low 90s. There exists appreciable spread
amongst the various deterministic and ensemble solutions on highs
today, with the 10+ degree spread in the 03Z SREF along the 
Kansas/Missouri border exemplifying this trend. Clouds may linger 
in the east overnight, with additional cirrostratus spilling 
southward from nocturnal High Plains convection; similar to what 
we are seeing this morning in northern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

The effects of Barry linger through Tuesday before warmer weather
arrives to round off the week.

The cloud cover associated with Barry lingers through Tuesday in 
the eastern forecast area as the near-surface low lifts through 
Missouri. By late Tuesday, the opening wave becomes caught in the
subtropical jet and works up the Ohio River Valley for Wednesday.
While the bulk of the impacts with clouds will be today and 
tonight, highs on Tuesday may be tempered a couple of degrees in 
the east before the clouds depart. The timing of the cloud 
departure is a bit uncertain, with some solutions lingering the 
stratocumulus through more of the afternoon than other solutions. 
Additional rounds of High Plains convection initiating along a
quasi-stationary lee trough are expected Tuesday and Wednesday 
nights, but should remain mostly north of the forecast area. 
Cannot rule out a stray shower or storm working into north-central
Kansas, but the chances are quite low.

As Barry lifts northeastward, upper level ridging begins to 
strengthen over the Southern Plains for the remainder of the week.
Southwest H850 flow should bring an airmass of +27 to +29 C up 
across the region, translating into surface temps in the upper 90s
to low 100s. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will cause 
heat indices to swell into the 100-110 range for Wednesday through
Friday. The latest runs of the GFS have come more in line with 
the EC with respect to the upper level pattern late this 
week/weekend, but there still exist appreciable differences in the
low level thermal fields to account for a 10+ degree spread in 
the high temperatures forecast between the various medium range 
guidance. The GFS also differs in the evolution of a Northern 
Plains trough over the weekend, which would usher a frontal 
boundary southward should it pan out. The EC/GEM fail to drop this
trough southward and keep the ridging and heat in place. Have 
still trended on the warmer side of the guidance envelope given 
the overall pattern setup.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

MVFR to low VFR ceilings will gradually overspread eastern Kansas
this morning and persist for the rest of the TAF period. Winds 
will be from the south to southeast at 5 to 10 kts today.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Skow
AVIATION...Skow