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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 142037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Breezy conditions with warming temperatures continuing into Sunday 
will be the main story for the short term forecast with only slight 
chances for showers and storms late this evening into overnight.

A broad trough is stretched from the Pacific northwest into the New 
England states.  The surface is exhibiting southerly flow regime 
with a lee trough in place.  The focus for the late evening period 
tonight will be a very weak low amplitude shortwave working through 
the northern and portions of the central Plains into the overnight 
period.  Can't rule out a storm or two could flirt with severe 
limits if they do get going as far south as north central Kansas. 
This probability seems low at this time.  But if a storm can reach 
the area, organization appears like it would be minimal with weak 
shear overall this far south of the main wave.  The main threats 
would continue to be hail and wind with any storm.  

Ridging continue to build into the region tomorrow with higher 
heights and mixing allowing for above normal highs into the low to 
mid 90s.  Heat index values become uncomfortable once again for the 
foreseeable future into the upper 90s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A dry period should hold into Wednesday before overall low chances 
of precip begin to re-enter the forecast.  Highs will likely remain 
above normal as ridging is reinforced by a persistent western trough 
deepening over the Pacific coast.  

Several differences in the long range forecast remain with the GFS 
continuing to be the deeper and more intense solution.  Timing is 
also an issue more so with some of the latest runs with the GFS 
tending to be more progressive with eastward progression of systems. 
 As a result, the confidence in the longer range forecast remains 
low.  But it does look like several chances for showers and storms 
may linger through late week into next weekend with surface and 
boundaries wavering back and forth through the area. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

VFR conditions hold for much of the period with high confidence.
Breezy conditions continue this afternoon until near sunset with
afternoon cumulus especially over eastern terminals. Mid clouds
may move in from the west with lower confidence in isolated
showers or storms making their way into the terminals very late
overnight. The higher confidence aviation hazard will be that of
LLWS overnight as a strong LLJ develops across the region arond
04Z lasting through around 14Z.