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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 222039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
339 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

No hazardous weather is expected for the short-term forecast period. 
The main impacts will be lingering cloud cover and subsequent 
temperature forecasts through the overnight period into the day 

The upper air pattern is characterized by a low pressure system over 
the New England region with a minor shortwave now translating into 
he Western Great Lakes with a closed upper low spinning over the 
Desert Southwest and Baja region.  The surface cold front has near 
made its way through the forecast area separating the more moisture 
boundary layer with a more modified continental polar airmass now 
working into the region.  

This drier air should allow for a mix of sun and clouds for the rest 
of the day and overnight period.  Thinking that the dry air will be 
ultimately slower to work in than some models forecast with slower 
overall progression of the cold front.  Isentropic ascent along the 
frontal zone and the low level cold air advection could allow for 
mid level cloud cover to linger over the region with even some wrap 
around moisture working back into northern areas from the 
deformation zone developing over the Great Lakes region. Considering 
the amplified pattern from the Southern Plains into portions of the 
Mid MS Valley region, high clouds also become a factor this period.  

What all this means for temperatures is where the main challenge for 
the short-term period has come into play.  Have kept high temps 
slightly depressed for the balance of today in the mid 60s and low 
70s.  Tonight, temps only drop to the 40s even with cold advection 
with cloud cover in the forecast.  Tuesday highs should top out in 
the 60s with the lowest temps actually over east central areas due 
to possible showers lingering into the afternoon if isentropic 
ascent becomes focused this far north aiding in depth of

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

For the longer range forecast, a quiet week for hazardous weather 
threat seems in store.  The split flow pattern will allow for the 
closed upper low over the Desert Southwest to slide east into the 
Southern Plains region.  Main belt of the Westerlies resides mainly 
north of the area even into the weekend.  Overall height rises into 
the latter portions of the week should yield a boost in overall 
temps each day.  High temperatures range from the 70s by Wednesday 
to the low 80s by the weekend while low temps rise from the 40s to 
the mid 50s.  

Along with the quasi-zonal pattern over the Rockies and high pressure 
sliding east of the region into Saturday, should see an increase in 
southerly flow over the region.  A main question for this period 
will be storms and what variety.  Moisture quality with the 
trajectory of return into the region will be a concern.  Also, how 
much capping will be in place and what overall hodographs will look 
like during the period where a frontal zone moves into the region on 
Saturday.  Can't rule out possible storms but severity is very hard 
to pin down at this time.  Will keep a watch on trends over the next 
few days, but Saturday into Sunday looks to be the next best chance 
of possible impactful weather over the region. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2019

MVFR CIGS linger longer than originally anticipated. However,
better mixing is taking place, so the expectation is that MVFR
lift to VFR for the afternoon. Northwest winds persist through
much of the period before gradually veering to the north during
the day tomorrow. Have kept some indication that MVFR stratus
could thicken back up during the overnight into early morning
period. Confidence is presently low with the front moving
southeast of the area and overall drier air moving in.