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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Topeka, KS (TOP)

FXUS63 KTOP 231119 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Topeka KS
619 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

As of 08Z Tuesday a highly amplified midlevel ridge was positioned 
across the Central and Northern Rockies with north-northwesterly 
midlevel flow across the forecast area. An attendant surface ridge 
axis extended from the TX Panhandle, northward into western MN. This 
has yielded clear skies and light surface winds. Plentiful 
radiational cooling has allowed for temperatures to reach the upper 
50s and lower 60s.

A quite comfortable day is in-store across the region with high 
temperatures in the upper 70s/lower 80s and light winds. A 
persistence forecast will suffice for tonight with a repeat 
performance of the current overnight. There could be some patchy 
ground fog near dawn Wednesday morning, especially across far 
eastern KS, where the surface ridge axis will reside.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Transitioning into the extended period, the midlevel ridge across 
the Rockies will begin to deamplify by mid to late week as a trough 
axis comes ashore in the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, a surface lee
trough will develop across the High Plains, allowing southerly 
low-level flow to return to the forecast area by Thursday. This 
WAA will begin a warming trend by weeks-end with temperatures 
returning to the upper 80s and 90s for the upcoming weekend. The 
next chance for rainfall arrives late Sunday into Monday as a 
secondary midlevel trough traverses the Northern Plains, shunting 
the aforementioned surface trough through the CWA. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
slowly veer to the east-southeast through the period with speeds
near 5 kts. Patchy fog is possible near dawn Wednesday morning.