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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

FXUS62 KTBW 190719

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
319 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Broad cyclonic flow continues across the southeast with a shortwave
moving across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. This helped
generate a line of showers and thunderstorms that moved over the Gulf
and into the Tampa Bay region. These will continue to sink slowly
southward over the next few hours, though the line is becoming more
broken with time. At the surface, the Atlantic ridge axis stretches
over south Florida, with a southwest low-level flow remaining in
place. For the rest of today, precipitable water values are forecast
to be around 2 inches, with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected. These will generally shift toward inland
areas through the afternoon and evening. Mid/upper ridging then
starts to build over the region on Thursday, although onshore flow
will continue, with scattered rain chances expected. The ridge will
build even more for Friday and into the weekend and early next week,
with some relatively drier air moving in, bringing lower rain 
chances. Low-level flow will become lighter as surface high pressure 
settles over Florida with the best rain chances forecast to be away 
from the immediate coast. Conditions otherwise will be typically warm
and humid.


A broken line of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly sink
south through the Tampa Bay area and could bring localized MVFR/IFR
conditions to mainly KLAL through the next hour or two. A break in 
thunderstorm activity is expected once this line moves through, but 
additional storms are forecast to form later today, with more 
restrictions possible. These will generally shift toward inland areas
through the afternoon and evening hours. 


High pressure south of the area will keep a southwest wind flow in 
place across the waters through the next several days. No headlines 
are expected, though winds and seas will be higher in or near any 
showers and thunderstorms.


No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain 
above critical levels. No significant fog is expected. 


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  78  90  78 /  50  20  20   0 
FMY  90  77  92  76 /  20  10  10   0 
GIF  88  75  92  75 /  70  20  20   0 
SRQ  89  77  91  77 /  40  20  10   0 
BKV  87  74  90  74 /  60  30  20  10 
SPG  88  79  90  79 /  40  20  10   0 


Gulf waters...None.