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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

                            
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190010
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
810 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Cyclonic flow prevails aloft the eastern U.S. while a short wave 
trough tracks across north FL from the northeast Gulf of Mexico 
overnight. Atlantic high pressure ridge west with an axis through 
south FL. As a result modest southwesterly 1000-700MB flow will 
stream in moisture rich air...with model PWAT values in the 1.8 to
around 2 inch range over the area. With the loss of daytime 
heating and southwest flow pushing convection eastward only 
isolated showers and a few storms remain...mainly in Polk County 
and parts of the Nature Coast. These will exit around midnight and
have adjusted the forecasts to reflect this. Late night showers/storms
form on the Gulf and move inland Wed morning...a repeat of today.

&& 

.AVIATION...
19/00Z TAF cycle. SHRA/TSRA have exited to the FL east coast with
VFR prevailing until 14-15Z...when a SW flow pattern pushes late 
night Gulf convection onshore then inland AFT 20-21Z. Have opted
to keep TAFs VFR but brief MVFR/LCL IFR PSBL. 

&&

.MARINE...
Atlantic high pressure ridging west to the Gulf of Mexico...with
an axis near the Florida Keys...continues through the work week
with southwesterly winds. Winds/seas 15 knots/3 feet or less
although higher in and near showers and thunderstorms. 

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  88  79  90 /  10  50  40  20 
FMY  75  90  77  92 /  10  30  20  10 
GIF  75  88  76  91 /  20  60  30  30 
SRQ  77  90  78  91 /  10  40  30  10 
BKV  74  88  75  90 /  10  60  40  30 
SPG  78  88  80  90 /  10  40  40  20 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
UPPER AIR...19/Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close