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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

FXUS62 KTBW 230716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
316 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Easterly flow regime remains in place across the area today as 
Atlantic ridge is positioned north of the area. To the southeast,
an inverted trough/tropical wave is moving towards the southern 
FL peninsula. This will bring deeper moisture over the southern 
portion of the forecast area today which will allow for likely 
PoPs across SW Florida this afternoon and evening. Across the 
Nature Coast, atmospheric moisture remains lower and thusly rain 
chances there should be in the 20-30 percent range. A weak 
seabreeze will likely develop and push inland in the vicinity of 
the I-75 corridor which could spark some shower and storm 
development in this area. Any convection will move west out into 
the eastern gulf during the evening hours with skies becoming 
mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight. Similar weather is 
expected on Saturday with deeper moisture perhaps shifting a bit 
further north. 

During Sunday and Monday a weakening frontal boundary will drift 
into the southeast states with the models developing a weak low, 
perhaps tropical in nature, off the Florida east coast that moves 
northeast away from the region. This pattern will setup a more
south to southwest flow across the area and with ample moisture 
remaining in place we'll continue to see unsettled weather with 
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. As is typical 
with this setup the best timing for the convection will be over 
the coastal waters and near the coast during the late night and 
morning hours then shifting inland during the afternoon and 

Temperatures will run near climatological norms through the


VFR conditions expected through the rest of the morning and into 
early afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop during the afternoon, causing brief 
periods of MVFR/IFR conditions as storms move over individual 


Atlantic ridging will continue to extend across northern Florida 
into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today with light southeasterly 
winds turning onshore with the afternoon sea breeze. A weak
inverted trough will move northwest into the eastern Gulf of 
Mexico during the weekend, with somewhat variable winds Saturday 
turning to southerly and southwesterly Sunday through early next 
week. Winds and seas will generally remain below headline 
criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally 
hazardous boating conditions. 


Sufficient low level moisture will keep relative humidity values 
above critical levels through the week with no Red Flag conditions 
expected. No significant fog is expected through the period.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  78  92  77 /  40  20  40  20 
FMY  91  77  91  76 /  60  30  50  30 
GIF  92  76  93  75 /  50  20  50  20 
SRQ  92  78  92  77 /  50  20  40  20 
BKV  93  75  93  75 /  40  20  40  20 
SPG  91  80  91  77 /  50  20  30  30 


Gulf waters...None.