Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

FXUS62 KTBW 211928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued by National Weather Service MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

...Above Normal Temperatures Through the Upcoming Weekend...

.SHORT TERM... (Tonight - Friday)

Tonight...Strong mid level ridge will remain off the
southeast Atlantic coast tonight with low level east
southeast flow around the low level Atlantic ridge. A dry
airmass will continue across west central Florida with warm
overnight low temperatures mainly in the 60s. Some patchy
fog may develop late tonight across the Nature Coast. 

Thursday-Friday...The mid level ridge off the southeast
Atlantic coast will retrograde toward central Florida by
Friday afternoon. Subsidence from the ridge will keep mainly
dry and warm conditions continuing through late week. The
latest GFS model runs indicates some low shower perhaps by
Friday but with the strength of the overhead ridge will
leave rain chances just below mentionable range and lean
toward the drier NAM guidance for now. Highs will average 
in the lower to mid 80s coastal areas and mid to upper 80s 
across the interior. Lows will be in the 60s.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM... (Saturday - Wednesday)
The mid level ridge near the area Saturday will slip south
and elongate across south FL over the weekend and into early
next week. High pressure well east of the state will also
slip south and allow low level flow to veer to the southeast
Satuday and southerly on Sunday. This will allow low level
moisture to gradually increase with some low diurnal shower
chances each afternoon through the weekend. Low level flow
will veer to the southwest Monday ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary into early Tuesday which will then lift
back north into mid week. This will should bring more
cloudiness and a chance of showers to the area for mid week. 
Well above normal temps will continue over the weekend into
Monday and then temps will be slighly lower but still above
normal as the frontal boundary approaches the area into 


Scattered to broken VFR cumulus will diminish shortly after
sunset with mostly clear skies for the overnight. Some MVFR
fog may develop late tonight at KLAL and Ft Myers area 


High pressure across the Atlantic will keep low level east
to southeast flow to 10-15 knots at times across the waters
into Friday. Winds will veer to the southeast Saturday and
southerly Sunday with winds becoming onshore near the coast
by late afternoon each day over the weekend. Mainly dry
weather will continue into the weekend with highest seas to
around 3 ft remaining offshore with good boating conditions
near shore. Winds will veer to the south-southwest Monday
ahead of the next front which is forecast to move through
the waters Monday night. 


Adequate low level moisture will keep humidity values above
critical levels through the end of the week with no red 
flag conditions expected. Breezy southeast transport winds 
will result in elevated dispersion indices Thursday. Some 
patchy fog will be possible during the late night and early 
morning hours the next few days, with the best chances 
across the fog prone locations of the Nature Coast.


Here are some record high temperatures for today and the 
year set.

Brooksville         85 1997 
Tampa               87 1961 
Lakeland            89 1989 
ST Petersburg       86 1961 
Sarasota            87 1997 
Fort Myers          91 1944

Here are some record high minimum temperatures for today and 
the year set.

Tampa              69 2014
Lakeland           68 1989
ST Petersburg      68 1989
Sarasota           67 1975
Fort Myers         70 2014 


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  10 
FMY  66  86  66  85 /   0  10  10  10 
GIF  65  86  65  86 /   0  10  10  10 
SRQ  66  84  65  83 /   0   0  10  10 
BKV  61  86  61  85 /   0   0   0  10 
SPG  67  83  68  82 /   0   0   0  10 


Gulf waters...None.