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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

FXUS62 KTBW 210806

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
306 AM EST Mon Jan 21 2019


.SHORT TERM (Today - Tuesday)...
At mid levels - A low tracks from the lower Great Lakes to New 
England coastal waters by later today as an attendant trough 
shifts off the eastern seaboard. To our west a ridge from the 
western Gulf of Mexico to the northern plains slides to the east 
U.S. coast by late Tue. At the surface - Canadian high pressure 
centered in the Upper Midwest takes a southeastward track... 
reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue it sprawls 
across the Gulf region.

A chilly to cold morning with a freeze warning til 8 am for Levy 
and inland Citrus counties with lows elsewhere expected to be 
below normal. As the high pressure tracks across the eastern 1/2 
of the nation the lower level flow becomes more northerly to 
north-northeast and while temperatures do rise during the day they
stay below normal. This subtle shift in the winds will allow Gulf
waves/seas to subside...reducing the high surf and the high risk 
of rip currents. Those advisories will be expiring later today. 
The lower level flow becomes northeast overnight then east Tue... 
allowing warmer and slightly more moist air to filter in. Lows 
Tue morning approach but stay below normal while afternoon highs 
will be around normal. The moisture increase will be limited with 
no rainfall. 

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Tuesday Night-Sunday)...
Broad mid/upper level troughing will setup across the eastern two-
thirds of the CONUS with a series of shortwaves moving through it
during the period. The first of these waves will move across the 
eastern U.S. and Florida with it associated cold front pushing 
through the region on Thursday. Out ahead of this boundary 
southeast to south flow will bring a quick moderation in 
temperatures and moisture with a few showers possible Wednesday 
afternoon, then becoming likely Wednesday night into Thursday. 
There could be enough instability for a few thunderstorms to pop 
up during this time, but severe threat looks minimal at this time.
Behind this front high pressure will build in late in the week 
into the first half of the weekend with northerly winds bringing 
another shot of cool dry air to the region. The next mid/upper 
level shortwave will be approaching by Sunday with an area of low 
pressure developing in the northwest Gulf of Mexico tracking east.
Low level winds will quickly veer around to the southeast and 
south as a warm front develops over the region and lifts north 
Saturday night into early Sunday followed by the cold front 
associated with this system sweeping through by Sunday night. 
Moisture will return from south to north Saturday and Saturday 
night with a few showers possible across southern areas Saturday 
afternoon and across the entire region Saturday night and Sunday.


21/06Z TAF cycle. FEW SC will give way to prevailing SKC. NNW 
winds become NE AOB 10KT. 


High pressure moves by north of the waters through midweek with
winds veering and diminishing some. However the gradient will 
continue tight enough for wind speeds occasionally in the caution
to advisory range. A cold front approaches Wed then moves through
Thu with a few possible thunderstorms and winds shifting to 
northwest as high pressure settles in for the end of the week.


Drier air has spread across the area...especially central and 
southern mainly coastal counties. For those areas there will be up
to 3 hours of humidity values below 35 percent in the afternoon. 
While the ERC values run in the 32-37 range winds stay below 15 
mph so no Red Flag conditions are anticipated. An increase in 
moisture begins Tue and continues through the week. Robust 20 foot
and transport winds along with increased mixing heights Tuesday 
result in high dispersion values.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  61  48  72  60 /   0   0   0   0 
FMY  66  50  75  61 /   0   0   0  10 
GIF  61  47  72  59 /   0   0   0  10 
SRQ  63  47  73  61 /   0   0   0   0 
BKV  60  42  72  57 /   0   0   0   0 
SPG  60  52  70  61 /   0   0   0   0 


FL...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Coastal 
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal 
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal 
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal 
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal 
     Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Coastal 
     Levy-Inland Citrus-Inland Levy.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for 
     Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters 
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal 
     waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River 
     FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-Waters from Bonita 
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from 
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters 
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60