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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

                            
000
FXUS62 KTBW 211812
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
212 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.DISCUSSION... 
An upper level long wave trough...with a couple of short wave 
troughs/lows rotating through...across the eastern U.S. through 
tonight pivots offshore Fri as an upper level ridge from the western 
Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian Prairies shifts east - stretching 
along the Mississippi Valley by late Fri. Surface high pressure 
located in the central plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley sprawls 
down into the Gulf of Mexico and is reinforced from Canada Fri. 

The week comes to an end with a dry and cool northwesterly low level 
flow. Skies mostly clear to clear with no rainfall or fog expected. 
Temperatures run on the cool side of normal. 

For Sat through next Thu: During the weekend deep layer ridging 
slides across the area then exits to the Atlantic Mon. A long wave 
trough with an associated cold front swings into the Gulf Mon and 
crosses FL Tue. Deep ridging builds back in from the west for Wed-
Thu. Dry conditions prevail for the most part although the front 
will bring some showers. Temperatures slowly warm to near normal 
but dip as high pressure moves in behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/18Z TAF cycle. VFR. OCNL FEW CU/SC. Northwesterly winds...robust 
AT TIMES

&&

.MARINE... 
Winds increase late this afternoon and tonight...reaching caution 
speeds across some of the marine zones. A high pressure center tracks 
by north of the waters Fri-Mon with winds diminishing and veering.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air works in through Sat...perhaps at or below 35 percent. 
While some ERC values are high the winds remain below the threshold 
for Red Flag Warning for the most part. The exception is this
afternoon in Hernando County where winds increased to 15 knots...
a warning will be in place through this evening. For Sun and 
later veering winds will provide enough moisture...aided by a 
front Tue...to preclude any low RH concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  55  73  53  76 /   0   0   0   0 
FMY  53  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0 
GIF  52  76  50  79 /   0   0   0   0 
SRQ  54  71  50  76 /   0   0   0   0 
BKV  45  73  42  78 /   0   0   0   0 
SPG  59  72  59  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal 
     Hernando-Inland Hernando.

Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

09/RKR