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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tampa Bay Area, FL (TBW)

FXUS62 KTBW 121901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
201 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018


.SHORT TERM (Tonight - Tuesday)...
A positively tilted upper level trough over the central
Rockies this afternoon will slow down as it moves 
southeastward into the southern Plains tonight through 
Tuesday as it encounters strong upper ridging to its east 
with a cut-off low developing over eastern Texas through 
Wednesday. At the surface an area of low pressure over the 
Gulf coast along a frontal boundary draped across the 
northern Gulf coast will move northeast along the boundary 
across the deep south tonight, deepening as it moves 
northeast up along the mid Atlantic coast on Tuesday with a 
trailing cold front limping eastward through the Panhandle 
tonight, and then approaching the northern peninsula on 
Tuesday as it becomes parallel to the deep layered southwest
flow aloft. 

For tonight ample moisture within the warm sector south of
the northward moving warm front combined with light winds 
will support some fog development overnight, especially from
central interior zones north into the Nature Coast. In 
addition to the fog some low rain chances (Pops 20 percent) 
will remain in the forecast as well, mainly across the 
northern Nature coast closest to the warm front. It will be 
a very mild and muggy night with overnight lows in the upper
60s to lower 70s area-wide.

On Tuesday upper level and surface ridging from the Atlantic
and extending west across the south-central peninsula will
remain in control as the aforementioned cold front limps 
eastward toward the northern peninsula during the day. 
Adequate moisture and instability within the warm sector 
should support some scattered showers and isolated storms 
under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A south to southwest 
wind flow will make for another very warm day with 
temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 80s 
during the afternoon with some near record highs again 

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night - Monday)...
A highly amplified upper pattern has set up over the CONUS
to start out the long term period. A broad elongated area 
of ridging south of Bermuda extends southwest over the 
Bahamas, Cuba and into the central Caribbean Sea. Farther to
the west, a closed upper low over eastern Texas sits in the
base of a deepening trough that will sweep through the 
southeast U.S. through the end of the week. The eastern half
of the U.S. will be under the influence of broad troughing 
by Saturday and will continue into next week. This troughing
will lend support to the next weather system moving through
the southeast U.S. later this week and also help to usher 
in some much cooler air through the weekend. 

On the surface, high pressure has shifted east of Bermuda
while an extensive frontal boundary extends along the 
eastern seaboard from an area of low pressure near Maine. 
The low moves rapidly to the northeast by Wednesday evening 
and the frontal boundary becomes oriented more northeast 
through southwest and extends over northern Florida into the
Gulf of Mexico. Another area of low pressure develops along
the trailing edge of this front by late Wednesday into 
Thursday and will give us our highest chance of rain/storms 
(50- 70% POPs) during that period. The system is expected to
exit the area by late Thursday as high pressure pushes into
the area from the northwest. With this high pressure, 
pleasant weather with cooler and drier air can be expected 
through the weekend and into next week.


Some MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys from some low clouds and fog
may impact the terminals between 09-13Z Tuesday morning, 
otherwise VFR is expected during the next 24 hours. 
Southeast to south winds around 10 knots this afternoon will
diminish to 5 knots or less after 02Z tonight, then 
increase to 6 to 8 knots after 15Z on Tuesday. 


A warm front will lift north of the waters later tonight.
High pressure from the Atlantic across the south-central 
peninsula will support a southeast to southerly wind flow 
over the Gulf waters tonight as a cold front slowly moves 
east toward the western Panhandle. During Tuesday through 
Wednesday a south to southwest wind flow can be expected 
across the waters as the aforementioned cold front moves 
toward the northern peninsula. During Thursday developing 
low pressure across the northeast Gulf will deepen as it 
moves northeast up along the eastern seaboard through 
Friday. As the low lifts out to the northeast a trailing 
cold front will get pulled southeast through the waters late 
Thursday night into Friday with winds shifting into the 
northwest and north in its wake with Cautionary or Small 
Craft conditions likely on Friday with hazardous boating 
conditions developing. Lighter winds and seas will return to
the waters on Saturday as surface high pressure builds in 
over the Gulf in the wake of the front.


Humidity values will remain above critical levels through
the remainder of the week with no fire weather hazards 
expected. Some late night and early morning fog will be 
possible over inland locations the next few days with some
reduced visibility possible. Drier and cooler air will move
into the region late in the week and into next weekend in
the wake of a cold front with much lower humidity expected.


Here are the record high temperatures for Tuesday.

Tampa...........89 set back in 1993
Lakeland........93 set back in 1986
Sarasota........92 set back in 1972
FT Myers........90 set back in 1993
ST Petersburg...88 set back in 1972


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  73  84  71  82 /  20  40  30  50 
FMY  72  87  72  86 /  10  30  30  50 
GIF  70  86  69  84 /  10  50  30  60 
SRQ  72  84  71  82 /  10  40  30  50 
BKV  68  84  67  81 /  30  40  30  60 
SPG  72  83  71  82 /  20  40  30  50 


FL...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for 
     Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.