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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tallahassee, FL (TAE)

FXUS62 KTAE 190716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
316 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

With a weak shortwave, southwesterly flow and PW values well above 
normal, will continue to see a more active pattern today in terms of 
convection. Thunderstorm activity will be earlier in the day than we 
normally see during the summer with convection increasing by about 
12z this morning. Storms will continue into the afternoon, but the 
better focus will be across the eastern half of the CWA after 18z. A 
few strong storms with gusty winds will be possible. In addition, 
with PW values 2+ inches, localized flooding will remain a threat in 
areas with training storms or high rainfall rates. Highs will be in 
the mid 80s to lower 90s. 

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Friday]...

In the upper levels a broad trough is over the Central and Eastern 
U.S. with a shortwave moving through the pattern tomorrow afternoon. 
By Friday a ridge will build into the Southeast. At the surface low 
pressure is over the Northeast. A weak extension of the Bermuda-
Azores high is over South Florida. Low level flow is southwesterly 
near the surface and westerly at 850mb. The best chance for rain and 
thunder will be tomorrow as a trough approaches with POPs of 40 to 
55 percent. Friday POPs will be mainly 30 to 40 percent. A few 
strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon during max 
heating. SPC clips the northernmost counties (SW GA) in the area 
with a marginal risk for severe. Highs will be in the lower 90s. 
Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge is over the Southeast. At the surface 
weak high pressure is over the region with southwesterly flow near 
the surface. Weak low pressure may develop over the South next 
Tuesday. POPs will be fairly low at 20 to 30 percent each afternoon. 
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Lows will be in the low to mid 


[Through 06Z Thursday]

LIFR to IFR conditions are possible through about 12-14z and then 
the focus will shift to convection. Expect TSRA earlier today than a 
typical summertime pattern with impacts to the TAF sites beginning 
in the 12-15z range. While a few storms cannot be ruled out in the 
afternoon, the better chances will be before 19z for the TAF sites 
so have confined mention of TSRA to the morning to early afternoon 
timeframe, with the exception of VLD where convection is expected a 
little later.



A wet pattern is expected through tomorrow. It is worth noting that 
more waterspouts are sighted this time of year especially in the 
morning hours. Southwesterly winds will be moderate (15 to 20 knots) 
through Friday. Seas will be 3 to 4 feet through tonight.



High dispersion values are expected today across the Florida 
Panhandle and across the entire area on Thursday. As the wet pattern 
continues though, RH values will remain above critical thresholds 
and we will not meet Red Flag conditions over the next few days.



All local rivers are below action stage. The wet pattern will 
continue through tomorrow. The stronger storms with heavier 
downpours may produce localized flooding especially ponding on 
roadways and flooding of low lying areas. Training storms can 
produce high rain amounts very quickly. 1 to 3 inches of rain is 
forecast for the coastal counties through Friday. Elsewhere 0.5 to 
1.5 inches is expected.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   89  73  92  75  91 /  70  20  50  20  30 
Panama City   86  78  86  79  88 /  60  20  40  20  20 
Dothan        90  74  93  75  92 /  30  10  50  20  40 
Albany        90  74  93  75  91 /  50  10  50  30  40 
Valdosta      88  73  91  75  92 /  70  10  40  10  40 
Cross City    85  74  87  75  90 /  70  30  50  10  20 
Apalachicola  85  77  87  78  88 /  70  20  40  10  20