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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Tallahassee, FL (TAE)

                            
000
FXUS62 KTAE 201923
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
323 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Fair weather will continue through early tonight. A perturbation in 
the deep layer easterly flow will lead to an increase in low-level 
moisture below an inversion around 850 hPa late tonight. There may 
be some sprinkles in the FL Big Bend into Southwest GA late tonight, 
and this is noted in the forecast. Low temperatures will range from 
the middle to upper 60s, which is near seasonal levels.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Surface high pressure will be centered off the coast of Virginia
through the short term. This will keep easterly low level winds in
place. While there is a very brief time period where a few light
showers/sprinkles are possible across the Valdosta area, the
chances are very low and except for this, the short term will be
dry. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the
mid to upper 60s. 

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

High pressure will continue to dominate at the beginning of the
long term. It will weaken though as a front moves across the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley on Monday. While the long term forecast is 
dry, it's not out of the question that a few showers will be 
possible late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

10 knot easterly winds with gusts between 15 and 20 knots will 
continue for all terminals for the remainder of the afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected to persist, however, there will be a 
chance for some low clouds tomorrow morning prior to sunrise. 
Confidence in development/coverage is far to low to mention in 
this set of TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly winds will continue into next week. Initially, winds are
at Small Craft Advisory levels and this will continue through
early Saturday morning. While winds will decrease during the
afternoon Saturday, it's possible the advisory will need to be
extended based on waves and a brief period of advisory winds
Saturday night. Winds and seas will be lighter next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Although it will remain dry for the next several days, red flag 
conditions are not expected with relative humidity values remaining 
above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Precipitation will be near zero over the next week and thus there
are no flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  90  68  91  67 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   70  89  71  89  71 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        65  88  65  89  64 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Albany        66  87  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      66  88  66  90  65 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Cross City    68  89  68  91  67 /  10  10   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  72  86  74  86  72 /  10   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for 
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ Saturday for 
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to 
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From 
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal 
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton 
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to 
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola 
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico 
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. 

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fieux