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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Sacramento, CA (STO)

                            
531 
FXUS66 KSTO 231548
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
848 AM PDT Mon Oct 23 2017


.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and warm weather this week. Locally breezy north winds into 
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A very strong ridge of high pressure has built along the Western
US, bringing clear skies across California. A northerly pressure
gradient has been steadily increasing over the last day, but winds
aren't particularly breezy as of this writing. With a warming
airmass across the region, temperatures are running several
degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.

Warm temperatures will be the story for the next several days, as
the anomalously strong ridge lingers across the West. NAEFS (North
American Ensemble Forecast System) return intervals suggest that
a heat episode of this magnitude occurs roughly once every 10-30 
years this time of year. As such, a few record high temperatures 
will be possible today and Tuesday. Highs are expected to be in 
the mid 80s to lower 90s across the Central Valley, with 70s and 
80s over the mountains. These forecast high temperatures are 10 to
15 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

Periods of locally breezy north to northeast wind are also
expected today, possibly into Tuesday. This isn't an optimal setup
for gusty north winds, as there is little upper air support.

High pressure will weaken somewhat Wednesday into Thursday, but
temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the short
term.

Dang

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Strong upper high centered over the area Friday will gradually
weaken to ridge and shift over the Great Basin through the weekend
into early next week. This will result in continued dry weather
with above normal temperatures. High temperatures on Friday will
be around 10 degrees above normal, trending down to about 3 to 5 
degrees above normal by next Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...

AMS warms tda as high pres blds ovr fcst area. VFR conds ovr Intr
NorCal nxt 24 hrs. In Cntrl Vy, areas Nly sfc wnd gsts up to arnd 
25 kts poss til arnd 01z Tue. In fthls/mtns, lcl N to E sfc wnd 
gsts up to 35 kts poss til 18z Tue.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$