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Prognostic Meteorological Discussion (PMD)

Issued by National Weather Service (NWS)

FXUS01 KWBC 230759

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 23 2019 - 12Z Sun Aug 25 2019

...There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central High Plains and Mid-Atlantic...

...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern/Central High Plains and the Mid-Atlantic...

A cold front producing showers and thunderstorms will continue to
slowly move off the Northeast Coast, while settling farther south
over the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and
Central Great Plains on Friday.  In addition to producing strong,
gusty winds, some of these storms may produce heavy rainfall
amounts, resulting in localized flash flooding. 

On Saturday, the front is forecast to settle farther south into
the Southern Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley, while lingering
across Arkansas and Oklahoma back into the Central High Plains. 
Conditions will remain favorable for heavy rainfall amounts,
particularly across southeastern Virginia and eastern North
Carolina, where a series of upper level disturbances interacting
with plenty of moisture may produce multiple storms, raising flash
flooding concerns.

North of the front, high pressure will continue to build across
the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, with much cooler temperatures
spreading south and east from the the Great Plains and Midwest
into the eastern U.S. late in the week through the weekend. 

Summertime conditions will continue ahead of the front across much
of the Southeast to the Southern Great Plains.  Showers and
thunderstorms associated with trough of low pressure moving west
from the Bahamas may produce locally heavy rains over portions of
the southern Florida peninsula over Saturday or Sunday.

The combination of low humidities and strong winds will lead to
critical fire weather conditions for portions of the lower
Colorado Basin, Central Great Basin and the Central Rockies. Red
Flag Warnings are in effect Friday for portions of the region.


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