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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Shreveport, LA (SHV)

FXUS64 KSHV 181954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
254 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/

Moisture mostly confined below 850 mb and a cap near 700 mb have
managed to keep any convection at bay. Eastern portion of area 
have had barely more than a light shower even though moisture much
deeper on 12z JAN sounding. NW flow tonight across central high
plains bcmg zonal over OK so mcs development tonight will remain
mostly north of our cwa although may see late tonight tstms into
areas north of I-30. Outflow from this mcs may not only serve as
focus for convection later wednesday, but may also enhance
compressional heating and or dewpoint pooling with highs into the
lower 90s and dewpoints possibly into mid 70s. Elevated heat
indices around 100 and very steep lapse rates set up for rain
cooled downdrafts once tstms get firing up later in the day. Have
added mention of svr with damaging winds for aftn and evening
hours across some portions of area north of I-20 with storms
possibly continuing thru the overnight hours Wednesday night./07/.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ 

At the beginning of the forecast period, the upper level trough and 
associated moisture will be exiting the Four State Region with some 
lingering showers ending around midday. By Thursday evening, a weak 
upper level ridge will begin moving into the area and will stick 
around through Saturday. Then, we could see a weak sea breeze by the 
Saturday afternoon and evening timeframe for our southern zones. The 
ridge will shift further east on Sunday allow for the approaching 
upper level trough to send some disturbances our way late Sunday 
into Monday. Rain chances will increase during this timeframe as the 
pattern becomes unsettled before the upper level trough shifts east 
on Tuesday. 

Max temperatures will start out above normal from Thursday through 
the beginning of the weekend before leveling off and going below 
normal from there through Tuesday. /35/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/ 

Cloud cover today consists mainly of scattered cumulus. SW wind
increasing to 5 to 10 kts for most part across the region. Very
isold convection this aftn confined to eastern cwa with only
mention of shra at kmlu. Mostly vfr skc overnight with a few low
clouds possible after mainly 19/09z. These morning clouds will be
brief as sw winds begin durg mrng. Tstm outflow induced clouds
possible at ktxk and keld which may be slower to lift as boundary
approaches from the north. Winds may reach 15 kts at ktyr and 
kggg by 19/18z and at least 10 kts elsewhere across region. No
significant fog expected overnight./07/.


SHV  74  92  75  93 /   0  20  50  30 
MLU  74  92  75  93 /   0  20  50  20 
DEQ  71  88  70  90 /  30  50  70  20 
TXK  71  91  72  90 /  20  50  60  20 
ELD  72  92  72  91 /   0  40  60  30 
TYR  72  92  75  93 /   0  20  50  10 
GGG  72  92  75  94 /   0  20  50  10 
LFK  76  92  76  95 /   0  20  30  10