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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
000
FXUS66 KSGX 172108
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
152 AM PDT Fri May 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
The warming and drying trend will continue into Saturday. The winds 
are also expected to weaken in the mountains and deserts. By late 
Saturday night into Monday another low pressure system will bring 
cooling, gusty winds, and another chance for precipitation. Later on 
Monday and through early Tuesday another brief drying and warming 
period is possible. Late Tuesday through Thursday, a broad trough of 
low pressure over the western states will maintain strong onshore 
flow, cooler than average conditions, and occasional chances for 
precipitation as well over our area. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING 
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN 
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...
A rather low latitude jet will continue to push Pacific frontal 
systems with precipitation into the west coast at times. The pattern 
will transition to weak ridging and warming over the southwest into 
Saturday. This should last only a brief time period as by late 
Saturday into Sunday another storm system is expected. This will 
bring another round of cooling, and strong, gusty west winds in the 
mountains and deserts. Some mostly light precipiation along and west 
of the mountains late Saturday into Sunday night is expected with 
the cold front as it moving across southwestern California.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)...
The models, including the ensembles and WRF, look consistent with 
the continued parade of frontal systems moving through at least into 
early next week. Monday will be a day of waning showers followed by 
drying and warming. The next Pacific low pressure system may arrive 
some time around Tuesday bringing more cooling, gusty winds, and 
another chance for precipitation to move in. A trough of low 
pressure will linger in the vicinity of the southwest states for the 
middle part of next week maintaining cooler than average conditions 
and additional chances for precipitation to develop. 

&&
.AVIATION... 
172000Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds will redevelop 
after 08Z with bases 2000-2500 ft MSL, but coverage will likely not 
be consistent. Cigs will be most persistent in San Diego County, 
with coverage expected to be more patchy in Orange County and the 
Inland Empire. Clearing should occur near 16Z Saturday. 

Mountains/Deserts...West wind gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon and 
early evening, decreasing after 03Z Saturday. Some SCT cumulus over 
the mountains this evening.  

&&

.MARINE... 
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 11 PM Friday evening for 
strong westerly winds with gusts to 25 kts. Brisk winds Saturday 
afternoon will gust over 20 kts. Winds will increase again Sunday 
through Monday with hazardous boating conditions possible.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE  

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening 
     for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the
     Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from 
     San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending 
     30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Small 
AVIATION/MARINE...Rodriguez