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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
000
FXUS66 KSGX 190412
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
911 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will strengthen over the area through tonight, 
continuing to dry and stabilize the atmosphere. Onshore flow and a 
shallow marine layer will continue areas of night and morning low 
clouds over coastal and western valley areas into the upcoming week. 
Daytime temperatures will be near, to a bit above normal, while 
overnight lows continue between 5 and 10 degrees higher then normal 
due to the elevated sea surface temperatures. Monsoonal moisture may 
return by the middle of next week, rekindling the chance for 
mountain and desert thunderstorms. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Strengthening high pressure aloft over SoCal through tonight will 
begin to shift back to the SE through Tue as a trough deepens over 
the PacNW. The net result will be a slight warming early next week, 
and then a possible return of some monsoonal moisture by midweek. 
The chance of thunder returns to the mts by Tue afternoon as a 
result of the shift back to SE flow aloft.

Looking at the 12Z ECMWF/GFS runs...both handle the overall pattern 
similarly, and both suggest less mid-level moisture will return to 
the area than this past week. However, enough is there to leave the 
forecast as is. Other features of note...Both models trend 500H 
lower and show increasing SW flow aloft into next weekend. This 
should result in gradual cooling and decreasing thunder chances 
over the mts. 
  
&&

.AVIATION... 
190400Z...Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds will redevelop and spread 
inland after 06Z with bases 1200-1600 feet MSL and spread inland 10-
20 miles. Brief vis restrictions along inland edge of cloud deck. 
Clouds will scatter to the coast by 18Z Sunday.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear through Sunday, but with some 
cumulus clouds over the mountains Sunday afternoon. Bases near 10000 
feet MSL.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Beach Hazard Statement has expired and surf will gradually diminish 
through Sunday. However dangerous rip currents will still be a 
concern at the beaches.  

&&


.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

jmb/jad