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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
000
FXUS66 KSGX 161019
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
319 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore flow will continue this morning, but with northeast 
winds not as strong and widespread as on Monday with the winds 
diminishing during the afternoon. Periods of weaker northeast 
winds will continue at times into the weekend. Areas near the 
coast will cool a little for today and Wednesday with inland 
warming into Saturday. Around Sunday into Monday, a weak upper 
level low pressure system off the southern California coast could 
draw some moisture into southern California from the east and 
bring a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper level low pressure centered over Arizona will slowly weaken
and be centered over Utah on Thursday with weakening offshore flow
across southern California.

Northeast winds this morning in San Diego County will be similar
in strength to those on Monday, but a little less widespread.
Northeast winds in Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties will 
not be as strong this morning as on Monday and will be a little 
less widespread. The northeast winds will mostly diminish during 
the afternoon. Periods of weaker and more localized northeast 
winds will continue for Wednesday and Thursday. 

With the weakening offshore flow and decreasing lower level cold
advection from the Great Basin, high temperatures near the coast
will cool a little today and Wednesday while areas farther inland
warm several degrees today and a few more degrees on Wednesday.
High temperatures on Thursday will be a degree or two warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Weak upper level low pressure will develop off the southern
California coast on Friday and remain through Sunday, then begin
to move slowly inland on Monday. That upper level low pressure
could draw some mid level moisture westward into portions of
southern into central California for Saturday night into Monday.
Model solutions continue to favor relatively greater chances for
showers and isolated thunderstorms for San Bernardino, Riverside,
and Imperial Counties and lesser chances to the west of there. 

Some additional warming of high temperatures is expected for
Friday and Saturday with continuing mostly weak offshore low level
flow with gusty northeast winds near the coastal foothills. For 
Sunday into Monday, greater cloud cover would bring some cooling. 

There is less cold air aloft with this low pressure system than
with the one at the end of last week. High temperatures on Sunday
and Monday should not be as cool as those this past Saturday and
there should be less potential for the widespread thunder that
occurred this past Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION... 160900Z...Clear skies today and tonight. Offshore winds 
will continue today before decreasing this afternoon and evening.
Strongest winds will be between 12-20Z today in foothills, 
adjacent valleys, and southern Orange County at 20-30 KT with top 
gusts over 40 KT. LLWS can be expected when winds lift off the 
surface before and after the strongest period of winds. Moderate 
up/down drafts in lee of mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Red Flag Warning continues through 8 PM this evening for the
mountains, valleys, and most of Orange County. Critical fire 
weather conditions will continue with periods of gusty northeast 
to east winds and very low humidity.

Northeast winds this morning in San Diego County will be similar
in strength to those on Monday, but a little less widespread.
Northeast winds in Riverside, San Bernardino Counties will not be
as strong this morning as on Monday and will be a little less
widespread. The northeast winds will mostly diminish during the
afternoon. 

While there has been a modest recovery in humidity overnight in
some areas to 20 to 30 percent, the humidity will fall to around
10 percent from mid morning through the afternoon. 

For Wednesday and Thursday, northeast winds will be weaker and 
less widespread with a gradual recovery in humidity.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County 
     Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The 
     San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County 
     Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country 
     Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San 
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys  -The Inland Empire-
     San Diego County Inland Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-
     Including The Palomar And Descanso Ranger Districts of the 
     Cleveland National Forest-Santa Ana Mountains-Including The 
     Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland National Forest.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM