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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

FXUS66 KSGX 170321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
820 PM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

A Santa Ana weather pattern will bring warm, dry weather this week 
with gusty northeast winds in the mountain passes and inland valleys 
at times. Over the weekend an upper level trough off the coast will 
bring increasing clouds and a chance for showers Sunday into Monday.



The Santa Ana is fading this evening with weather observations 
showing lighter winds and higher humidities than on Monday evening. 
Peak wind gusts this evening ranged from 30-40 mph in the wind prone 
areas including 35 mph at the San Bernardino Airport, Sill Hill in 
San Diego County, and Highland Springs in Riverside County.  

Dew points have rebounded in all areas this evening. The recovery 
near the coast has been quite remarkable. At 7 PM the dewpoint at 
Oceanside was 55 degrees, an increase of 47 degrees over the past 24 
hours. Welcome back, onshore flow. Farther inland the moisture 
increase was more subdued. Ontario's dewpoint was a mere 12 degrees, 
an increase of only 9 degrees in the past 24 hours. 

This Santa Ana synoptic pattern will remain relatively unchanged 
this week with a quasi-stationary upper low drifting from Arizona to 
Utah, and a surface high over the Great Basin. Offshore flow will 
continue all week with warm, dry days in all areas. Gusty ENE winds 
will continue in the mountains, passes and inland valleys, but not 
nearly as strong as they were on Monday. Humidities will slowly 
recover as moisture wraps around the upper low into Southern 
California. The IR loops shows mid and high clouds moving in from 
the northeast this evening.  
Over the weekend a weak upper level trough develops off the southern 
California. Models attempt to draw mid-level moisture into the 
region for possible showers in the mountains and deserts of San 
Bernardino and Riverside Counties, but precip chances are small at 
this time. 


162030z... Clear skies expected through tonight. Winds are remaining 
gusty at this hour, especially at KONT, KSBD, KPSP and KTRM with 15-
20 KT winds and gusts to 30KT. Winds will begin to weaken after 22Z 
this evening, and continuing to diminish tonight. LLWS possible this 
evening around 00-04Z as winds diminish. MOD UDDFS on coastal 
mountain slopes through this evening. Coastal low clouds will not be 
an issue tonight through Wed morning.


No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday.


The Red Flag Warning expired at 8 PM. Gusty northeast winds will 
continue in the mountains, foothills and eastern valleys through 
Friday. The humidities will not be quite as low as they were on 
Monday when they were in the single digits, but they will still be 
fairly low and range from 15-25% each afternoon. The fire threat 
will be elevated this week, but remain below Red Flag Warning 


Skywarn activation will not be needed this week.