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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
498 
FXUS66 KSGX 200432
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 PM PDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over Southern California will shift southeast to Texas 
by Tuesday. This will allow some monsoonal moisture to return, 
sparking new thunderstorm activity over the mountains and deserts on 
Monday and Tuesday. A drier pattern will then develop Wednesday and 
continue through the end of the week, with warm and dry conditions 
for SoCal. Night and morning low clouds will continue, mainly near 
the immediate coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

It was a very warm day today with temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees 
above normal in several locations. Thermal tied a record high today 
at 113. Slightly cooler conditions through the remainder of the week 
as high pressure shifts east, yet still a few degrees above normal 
for this time of the year for most locations. 

An earlier forecast update was to tweak the thunderstorm chances for 
Monday and Tuesday afternoons over the Peninsular Ranges of SB-Riv-
SD Counties. A slight chance of thunderstorms also over the lower 
deserts due to the monsoonal moisture creeping into the area. 
Tropical moisture with PWATS nearing 2" will clip SE CA along with 
moderate instability will bring the potential for heavy rain with 
any thunderstorms that do develop. Otherwise, no other changes were 
made to the ongoing forecast. 

&&

.AVIATION... 
200330Z...Coasts/Valleys...Stratus, with bases around 1200 ft MSL 
and tops near 1700 ft MSL, will develop along the coast tonight and 
push around 15 miles inland by early Monday morning. Low VIS of 3-5 
SM BR will develop where stratus nears higher terrain. Conditions 
will improve by late Monday morning as the stratus clears towards 
the coast.

Mountains/Deserts...TSRA may develop Monday afternoon, with bases 
around 8000 ft MSL and tops near 35000 ft MSL. Strong up/downdrafts 
and gusty surface winds are possible near storms, along with 
lightning and reduced VIS. Conditions will improve Monday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.

&&


.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...JMB
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT