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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
000
FXUS66 KSGX 140200 AAA
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service 
San Diego CA 
559 PM PST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of strong Santa Ana winds will continue through Wednesday
morning, though not as strong as the past 24 hours. Winds will 
become more localized with a weakening trend Wednesday through 
Thursday. High pressure aloft near the West Coast will weaken for 
Friday through Sunday with weak onshore lower level flow returning
and gradually strengthening. This will spread cooling inland and 
bring a return of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog as 
the marine layer slowly deepens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Updated to remove the High Wind Warning. Winds will remain strong 
along the coastal slopes/foothills overnight but will be well below 
high wind criteria most areas. 

...Critical Fire Weather Environment Exists Over Southern 
California...

RED FLAG WARNING in effect through 5 PM Wednesday coast to the 
mountains.

The Santa Ana winds have been really cranking today. They peaked
this morning and have since trended lower. Widespread wind gusts 
of 50-60+ mph have been observed downwind of the mountain crests, 
through and below canyons and passes. Some gusts over 70 mph were
recorded, including 86 mph at Sill Hill (San Diego County coastal
slopes), 82 mph at Hellhole Canyon (just E of Valley Center/SD
County), 71 mph at Alpine (SD County), and 71 mph at Highland 
Springs (off the western end of the San Gorgonio Pass/Riverside
County). Winds have also been high through other corridors - 
below the Cajon Pass, off the Santa Anas, Camp Pendleton area, and
from Ramona through the Santa Maria Valley to Lake Hodges/RB area
with prevailing gusts of 40-50 mph. Dust was picked up by these 
strong winds and visible in the air here at the office this
morning, but visibility has drastically improved as the winds have
subsided.

Hi-resolution models show winds continuing to blow strong downwind
of the mountain crests and through and below passes. We reached 
the peak of the winds, but it will remain very winds in areas 
through tonight with a gradual lessening through Wednesday. 

While the winds weaken further on Thursday, the relative humidity
will continue to run very low, 5-10% away from the coast. 

Previous long term discussion is below. There looks to be an
opportunity for much needed rainfall sometime next week as upper
level troughing develops to our west. This could drive weather
systems into the state. Timing/location of these features are
uncertain. Taking into account the past few operational runs of 
the global models and the GFS ensemble mean, it appears that the
best chance of rain is from Thanksgiving or beyond, but could
happen earlier. We will continue to assess in the days to come.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday from previous discussion)...
High pressure aloft near the West Coast will weaken for Friday
through Sunday with a slow increase in lower level onshore flow.
This will spread cooling inland and bring a return of night and
morning coastal low clouds and fog. For the early to middle part
of next week, flow through the mid latitude jet across the western
and central Pacific will split as it nears the West Coast. Low
pressure systems in the southern branch of that split flow will
move to near the California coast. There remains more than average
spread in the details among the global models. This should bring 
more cooling and at least some chance for precipitation by late 
Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION... 
132100Z...Gusty E to NE SFC winds continue to diminish at all 
terminals, and will become mostly VRB after 23Z Tue. Periods of LLWS 
will be possible as these surface winds decrease, with STG UDDFS 
likely over and W/SW of mountains. FEW-SCT high clouds near 25,000 
FT will continue to drift over the area into Wed. SFC winds will be 
lighter Wed, but areas of LLWS and MOD-STG UDDFTS will still be 
possible. 

&&

.MARINE...
Very localized easterly wind gusts above 20 kt are possible at times 
Wednesday, although should not be as widespread as today. Otherwise, 
no hazardous marine weather is expected through Sunday. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The peak of the Santa Ana wind event occurred this morning.
However, winds will continue to blow strong through Wednesday
morning along the coastal mountains slopes, as well as through and
below passes and canyons. However, winds will not be as strong as
was observed overnight through this morning and will lessen
Wednesday-Thursday. The Red Flag Warning continues in effect
through 5 PM Wednesday.

High pressure aloft near the West Coast will weaken for Friday
through Sunday with weak onshore lower level flow returning and
gradually strengthening. This will spread cooling and higher
coastal humidity inland as the marine layer returns and slowly
deepens. 

For the early to middle part of next week, low pressure systems
moving across the Pacific may begin to impact portions of
California including southern California. This would bring at
least some chance of wetting rainfall, but with low confidence in
the details given the spread in the model forecasts.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.



&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PST Wednesday for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County 
     Mountains-Including The San Jacinto Ranger District Of The 
     San Bernardino National Forest-San Bernardino County 
     Mountains-Including The Mountain Top And Front Country 
     Ranger Districts Of The San Bernardino National Forest-San 
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys  -The Inland Empire-
     San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Inland 
     Valleys-San Diego County Mountains-Including The Palomar 
     And Descanso Ranger Districts of the Cleveland National 
     Forest-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Santa Ana Mountains-
     Including The Trabuco Ranger District of the Cleveland 
     National Forest.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...10/Gregoria
AVIATION/MARINE...Rodriguez