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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

FXUS66 KSGX 162138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
238 PM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018

A low pressure trough along the West Coast and a strong ridge over 
the southern Plains will continue southwest flow aloft and dry, 
seasonable weather across SoCal the end of the week. Onshore flow
will continue some coastal low clouds nights and mornings, as 
well as gusty west to southwest winds over the mountains and 
deserts each afternoon and evening.



Another high quality day for SoCal with temperatures mild but not
excessively hot, mainly sunny skies. We had several patches of 
low clouds near the coastal strip early this morning and would 
expect similar performance tonight. 

The longer term pattern does not change a whole lot through the
end of the week. Temperatures will only see minor fluctuations
from day to day. Slight warming mid week due to slightly 
increasing heights and a very dry airmass, and slight cooling 
towards next weekend. 

Gusty winds will be diurnally driven by the coastal pressure
gradients with gusty winds likely each afternoon and evening. A
weak shortwave passing through SoCal Tuesday afternoon and evening
could ramp the winds up close to advisory level. 

The medium range models for several runs had been showing remnant
tropical moisture moving north from south of Baja California 
towards the end of the week. With the latest couple of runs this
moisture is being shunted too far to the east to have much of an
impact on SoCal. 



162030Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds will return to the San Diego 
County coast, and to a lesser extent Orange County, between 11-13Z 
Mon with bases 700-1000 ft MSL and tops to 1400 ft MSL. Local vis 
could drop to 3-5 miles, locally below, in higher terrain obscured 
by fog. Clouds are not expected to extend more than 10 miles inland, 
with clearing occurring by 16-18Z Mon. Low clouds will return to the 
coast 09-13Z Tue with bases 800-1000 ft MSL and tops to 1600 ft MSL. 

Mountains/Deserts...Clear with unrestricted vis through Mon night. 


No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday.



Long-period south swells will create elevated surf in Orange County 
for most of this week. The combination of swells from the south with 
periods of 14-19 seconds will bring mostly 3 to 6 foot surf in 
Orange County with locally higher sets, and high rip current risk. 
San Diego County will have mostly 2 to 5 foot surf.



Elevated fire danger will continue inland, especially over the
mountains Tue-Thu as a shot of extremely dry air moves in from the
north. Gusty winds will occur during the afternoon/evening with
the strongest winds possible Tuesday afternoon/evening.


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.