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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
538 
FXUS66 KSGX 131047
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
345 AM PDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will persist over the Southwest this weekend 
bringing warm, summer days and isolated afternoon showers and 
thunderstorms over the mountains. This pattern will continue into 
next week, but with increasing chances of thunderstorms over the 
mountains as monsoonal moisture slowly increases. Temperatures will 
continue to run slightly above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The atmosphere has turned a little drier over the past 24 hours. The 
Precipitable Water was 1.77" on the 12Z NKX sounding Thursday 
morning, and it was down to 1.57" on the Thursday evening sounding. 
This downward trend will continue through the weekend as deep layer 
moisture advection diminishes, and PWATs will probably lower to 
around 1.20". The moisture doesn't disappear completely though, and 
there will still be a thin layer of mid level moisture between 600-
800 mb in weak easterly flow which could trigger isolated afternoon 
convection over the mountains. Temperatures won't change too much. 
It's summer and it'll be warm/hot. Marine layer clouds have surged a 
few miles inland this morning and should make an appearance each of 
the next few mornings before retreating back out to sea. 

Next week the deep layer monsoon moisture returns in southeast flow 
between a building high over the Great Basin and an inverted trough 
over northern Baja. PWATS by Wednesday will be back up to around 
1.50-1.75", and the prospect of an easterly wave traversing northern 
Baja or SoCal will enhance the thunderstorm potential. In short, our 
warm and rather humid weather pattern looks like it will be in place 
through the third week of July. 

&&

.AVIATION... 
131000Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN-OVC stratus will continue 
within 15 miles of the coast through the clearing time around 16-
17Z. Bases will be 1100-1400 ft MSL with tops to 1700 ft MSL. Local 
vis below 3 miles will occur over higher coastal terrain and a few 
valleys. Stratus will develop again tonight with slightly lower 
bases, though timing of cigs at airports is low confidence.

Mountains/Deserts...Occasional SCT-BKN clouds above 12000 ft MSL 
will occur at times through Sat morning with mostly unrestricted 
vis. There is a slight chance of TSRA in the mountains and adjacent 
parts of the deserts this afternoon and early evening with cloud 
bases 9000 ft MSL and tops to 40000 ft MSL along with strong 
up/downdrafts, LLWS and local gusts over 40 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather through Tuesday.

&&

.BEACHES... 
A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Saturday evening for 
minor tidal overflow associated with 7 foot high tides each evening 
through Saturday. Most susceptible areas include Seal Beach, Sunset 
Beach, Newport Beach, La Jolla Shores and Imperial Beach.

Tides for today at La Jolla:
High Tide...4.3 FT at 10:48 AM PDT.
Low Tide....1.7 FT at 03:42 PM PDT.
High Tide...7.0 FT at 09:56 PM PDT.

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Orange 
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Moede
AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell