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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

                            
000
FXUS66 KSGX 241143
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
443 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will be persistent this morning west of the mountains and
along the coastal slopes, with a few sprinkles still possible. High
pressure building in this afternoon will bring increasing sunshine
and warmer days through Monday. Cooler again midweek as a Pacific
trough moves inland across central California. The system will 
generate a few showers over Southern California, but amounts will 
be light. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Deep marine layer in place this morning with extensive low clouds
in place across the coast and valleys and along the coastal 
slopes. A few light showers have been reported this morning and 
small chance of light showers or sprinkles will continue through 
about sunrise this morning. 

A weak ridge of high pressure will build across the region this 
afternoon, bringing decreasing cloudiness, although some afternoon
cumulus will be likely west of the mountains. Temperatures will 
warm up about 5 degrees for most areas today, and another 5
degrees on Monday with continued weak ridging aloft. 

Tuesday will feature increasing mid level flow as a trough
approaches the west coast. This trough will bring heavy precip to
NorCal and CenCal, but will be weakening as it drops SE.
Temperatures will be cooling through midweek as cloudiness will 
be increasing in the high levels. The tail end of a weakening 
front will move into SoCal Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a 
continued chance of showers for all areas, except for the deserts 
and Coachella Valley. Onshore winds will become quite gusty as 
well with strong winds possible through the mountains and along 
the desert slopes. 

Weak transitory ridging for late Thursday into Friday will bring
slightly milder temps and dry weather. A lot of disagreement with
the models but GFS Ensembles suggest a strong upper level long 
wave ridge will remain in place over the East Pac with faster 
zonal flow continuing across SoCal. The operational runs of the 
EC and GFS are in quite a bit of disagreement, but it is still 
looking to be dry if continued cool for our area next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION... 
230930Z...Coast/Valleys...Isolated -SHRA will continue through 14Z 
but have little or no impact on vis. Areas of BKN-OVC stratus with 
bases 1200-2200 ft MSL and tops to 5000 ft MSL will continue through 
16Z with mostly SCT local BKN conditions after 16Z. Local terrain 
obscurations will occur, but otherwise vis should remain above 5 
miles. CLR-SCT conditions will prevail tonight.

Mountains/Deserts...Areas of BKN-OVC low clouds will obscure coastal 
mountain slopes and some mountain crests through 16Z. Otherwise, 
mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis will prevail through 
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Long-period 16 second swell will continue to bring combined seas to 
8-9 ft in the outer waters today. The swell will begin to subside in 
the afternoon. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected 
through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A west-northwest swell of 6-8 ft from 290 degrees, combined with a 
15-17 second period will generate high surf today with sets to 8 ft 
possible, mainly in southern San Diego County. A High Surf Advisory 
is in effect for Orange and San Diego Counties through 9 PM tonight. 

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
 encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...Brotherton
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell