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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by San Diego, CA (SGX)

FXUS66 KSGX 241532

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
830 AM PDT Sun Mar 24 2019

It will be warmer today and Monday as partly cloudy skies give way 
to sunshine. High clouds will begin to thicken on Tuesday ahead of 
another Pacific storm that will move inland across the state 
midweek. It will bring breezy and cooler conditions, and a chance of 
scattered, light showers Wednesday into Thursday. The weather looks 
dry for next weekend with some warming expected. 



A few patches of clouds linger this morning, but most areas are 
clear. The 12Z Miramar sounding had a 2 degree C inversion at 3800 
FT and still showed cooling of around 2C below 6K FT over the past 
24 hours. Surface pressure gradients were weak at 8 AM PDT with 
mostly light winds. No forecast changes this morning.  

From previous discussion...

A weak ridge of high pressure will build across the region this 
afternoon, bringing decreasing cloudiness, although some afternoon
cumulus will be likely west of the mountains. Temperatures will 
warm up about 5 degrees for most areas today, and another 5
degrees on Monday with continued weak ridging aloft. 

Tuesday will feature increasing mid level flow as a trough
approaches the west coast. This trough will bring heavy precip to
NorCal and CenCal, but will be weakening as it drops SE.
Temperatures will be cooling through midweek as cloudiness will 
be increasing in the high levels. The tail end of a weakening 
front will move into SoCal Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a 
continued chance of showers for all areas, except for the deserts 
and Coachella Valley. Onshore winds will become quite gusty as 
well with strong winds possible through the mountains and along 
the desert slopes. 

Weak transitory ridging for late Thursday into Friday will bring
slightly milder temps and dry weather. A lot of disagreement with
the models but GFS Ensembles suggest a strong upper level long 
wave ridge will remain in place over the East Pac with faster 
zonal flow continuing across SoCal. The operational runs of the 
EC and GFS are in quite a bit of disagreement, but it is still 
looking to be dry if continued cool for our area next weekend.


231510Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN low clouds with bases 1200-2200 ft 
MSL and tops to 5000 ft MSL will continue through 18Z with mostly 
SCT conditions after 18Z. Local terrain obscurations will occur, but 
otherwise vis should remain above 5 miles. CLR-SCT conditions will 
prevail overnight.

Mountains/Deserts...Patchy low clouds will obscure coastal mountain 
slopes and some mountain crests through 18Z. Otherwise, mostly clear 
skies with unrestricted vis will prevail through tonight.


A long-period swell will continue to bring combined seas of 8-9 ft 
in the outer waters today. The swell will begin to subside in the 
afternoon. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected 
through Thursday.


A west-northwest swell of 6-8 ft from 290 degrees with a 15-17 
second period will generate high surf today with sets to 8 ft 
possible, mainly in southern San Diego County. A High Surf Advisory 
is in effect for Orange and San Diego Counties through 9 PM tonight. 


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


CA...High Surf Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.