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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 221056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Two areas of showers and embedded thunderstorms were ongoing
across the Central Plains early this morning. One area from 
northern Kansas into Northern Missouri along and front, and the 
other area from central Oklahoma northeast into southcentral 
Kansas associated with a low level jet. A shortwave trough across
the Rockies was moving east and interacting with a frontal 
boundary and a 45kt 850mb jet. Mid and upper level flow has been  
parallel therefore the precip has been slow to move east into the 
area. Southerly winds around 10-15mph have kept temps up in the 
lower to middle 70s overnight.

As we head through the morning hours, precip currently across 
Oklahoma/Kansas will begin to move into far southeast Kansas and 
western Missouri as the low level jet veers and moves overhead. 
Surface winds will become rather gusty across the area from mid 
morning into the early afternoon as higher winds mix to the 
surface from the low level jet. Expect wind gusts around 35 mph 
during this timeframe. Precip will likely not reach the US Highway
65 corridor, including Springfield, until closer to the noon 
hour. This precip will likely be elevated in nature and perhaps 
associated with some sort of pre frontal trough as the true cold 
front will remain back in Kansas through most of the day. This
precip will then move into the eastern Ozarks this afternoon.

During the afternoon, marginal instability (ML capes around
1000-1500jkg) will likely develop along and ahead of the cold 
front from southern Kansas into western Missouri as higher 
dewpoints advect in and temps warm slightly. Additional showers 
and storms will likely develop during the afternoon and evening 
across the area as the main shortwave trough swings through and
the area gets positioned into the right entrance region of a upper
level jet. A few isolated strong to marginally severe storms with
hail to the size of quarters and damaging winds to 60mph will be 
possible across the area this afternoon and evening. PW values 
will likely rise to near 2.0in therefore locally heavy rainfall 
will be possible with the highest rainfall amounts across 
southeast Kansas into western Missouri where the Flood Watch will 
remain in effect. 

The front will be very slow to clear the area, perhaps not until
after midnight across south central Missouri. High pressure will
slide across Kansas overnight. Drier air will be advecting in with
dewpoints dropping sharply. This along with clearing skies from 
the northwest, light winds and wet ground will allow for fog 
formation, especially along and northwest of Interstate 44. Some 
locations will see visibilities reduced to a mile or less by 
sunrise Monday morning. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

High pressure will remain in control on Monday with clear skies
and highs around 80. The high will slide off the east Tuesday with
winds returning to the south and a warm front approaching from the
southwest. Some weak mid level energy will move through during the
day and may be enough for some scattered showers and storms. The
mid/upper level flow remains fairly zonal over the area through
mid week with a large upper level low across Arizona. A upper
level trough does slide off north of the area Wednesday which may
attempt to push a front into the area. This may provide some 
scattered precip chances. The energy across the southwest looks 
to eject into the plains by Friday or Saturday however models
differ with the timing. It does look like warmer air will move 
back in by the end of the week and just beyond with highs warming 
back into the middle and upper 80s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will move east towards the TAF sites
today, mainly impacting JLN and SGF. Ceilings and vis will lower
in areas of showers and storms, dropping into MVFR range. Low
level wind shear will prevail through mid morning. Surface winds
will increase this morning and become gusty out of the south near
30kts. Winds will switch to the northwest overnight into early
Monday morning as a cold front moves through. Fog with reduced
visibilities will be possible at the end of the taf period. 


MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055-056-066-067-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield