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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 211711

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Moderate to heavy rainfall was impacting the Missouri Ozarks 
early this morning with widespread flooding occurring. Rainfall 
amounts of 2 to 5 inches had been reported through 2 am. With rain
continuing and additional rainfall amounts of between 1 and 3
inches expected across the region through this evening, have 
expanded the flash Flood Watch across the entire CWA through 7PM.

There has been some indication of a brief rain free period this
morning across far southern Missouri fro the short range models.
This should be rather brief before a strong cold front begins to
move east and bring additional strong to severe thunderstorms and
additional heavy rain to the region through this afternoon. 

As the low in the plains begins to lift north, the warm front 
that was suppressed south by the ongoing convection should lift 
into southwest Missouri. This will continue the chance for severe
storms along with a few brief spin ups possible. 

The cold front will move through the region fairly rapidly as the
upper level system lift north. The expectation is for the eastern
portions of the area to see the front and associated strong to
severe storms around daybreak with the front progressing across
the area through the afternoon and be east of the area by late 
this afternoon into early this evening. Once again, all models of
severe weather will be possible. 

The region will then see clearing tonight with lows in the 50s
across the region. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

Wednesday should be rather nice and potentially the only day for
the remainder of the week where showers or thunderstorms won't 
impact the area. This will be thanks to a surface high that will
filter through the region behind Tuesdays cold front. 

Sadly, the deep southwesterly flow aloft will remain in place
through the coming Memorial Day weekend. The Ozarks will be on 
the periphery of upper level high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS. with severe short waves moving through the upper level
flow, and depending on the strength of the high, additional rounds
of showers and storms will be possible. Will need to monitor this
boundary to determine how far north/south the rain will impact. 

In general, the remainder of the week with the exception of 
Wednesday look to be fairly active and wet. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

A couple of line segments of convection were pushing across the
forecast area early this afternoon. The first one has pushed
through SGF within the past hour. The second has pushed through
JLN and was shifting towards SGF by 18z and will linger for an
hour or two. Convection for BBG will be slightly later more likely
between 19z-22z. IFR conditions are expected during the most
intense convection with variable winds of 20 to 40 kts. Outside of
the convection, generally MVFR to VFR conditions and a southerly
wind at 15 to 25 kts.


MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.