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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 191721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1221 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

 ...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) 
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

An area of middle to high clouds, associated with a positively-
tilted upper-level trough over the Dakotas, is progressing into 
portions of southeast Kansas and western Missouri and will 
continue to overspread the area from west to east this morning. As
such, morning lows will remain mild in the mid 30s to low 40s 
across portions of southeast Kansas into western Missouri, while 
the eastern Ozarks drop into the low to mid 30s. Radar is showing 
a narrow band of light rain across the Kansas City metro area, but
this should stay north of our area for the most-part. However, 
some spotty drizzle to very light rain showers may be seen across 
central Missouri tonight.

This system will continue to slide southwards across the Central
Plains today, with winds shifting to southerly and becoming breezy 
over our area ahead of an approaching surface cold front. Low 
relative humidities combined with the breezy winds this afternoon 
may result in elevated fire weather conditions for grasses and 
brush fuels in areas mainly along and west of the I-49 corridor.
High temperatures will remain in the 50s this afternoon for the
eastern Ozarks, while portions of southeast Kansas and southwest
Missouri could reach the low to mid 60s.

We should remain dry until the evening hours, at which time the 
cold front will begin pushing into the western portions of our
area. A combination of limited moisture, the quick-moving nature 
of this system, and light rain being confined primarily along and
near the front should result in low rainfall accumulations of a 
few hundredths to less than a quarter inch by the time the front 
exits the area late Wednesday afternoon. The rain and cloud cover
on Wednesday will keep highs lower in the low to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday) 
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Pleasant and dry weather returns to the region for Thursday and
Friday as an upper-level ridge moves in from our west and surface
high pressure establishes itself over the region. Ample sunshine
and light winds will produce highs in the upper 50s on Thursday 
and low to mid 60s on Friday.

Unsettled weather arrives this weekend as the upper-level pattern
shifts to southwesterly ahead of our next rain-making system. We
will likely see some moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico on
Saturday and Sunday, with a more robust looking system bringing
some lingering showers through the weekend into early next week.
Not expecting any excessive rainfall amounts at the moment, but a
good soaking rain will not be out of the question.

Looks like northwest flow aloft and high pressure return by mid
way through next week, with the promise of Spring-like conditions
continuing for the foreseeable future.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

A cold front was pushing through central Kansas at midday with
mainly mid and high level clouds and south to southeast winds
ahead of it over southern Missouri. Winds could gust to near 20
knots this afternoon, especially at KSGF and KJLN along with VFR
flight conditions. An area of low pressure will lift across Kansas
late this afternoon and evening, with the cold front then
approaching southern Missouri late tonight. Expect ceilings to
lo lower into MVFR category from west to east between 09Z-12Z,
along with a wind shift to the west and a better chance for seeing
showers. There could be some brief IFR conditions develop after
12Z as the showers pass through the terminals before ending from
west to east between 15Z-18Z.




SHORT TERM...Rothstein/DSA
LONG TERM...Rothstein/DSA