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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 231708

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Convection is lining up to favor the southern portions of the area
to receive heavy rainfall into this afternoon. Updated forecast
has 2-3+" in the southern two tiers of counties along the MO/AR
border, with potential for 4-5". Therefore, extended the southern
end of the Flash Flood Watch farther east.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

There's a lot going on in the region right now. Ongoing persistent
convection over portions of the forecast area are expected to
continue into the morning hours before scattering out and shifting
east. Convective cluster over south-central KS is shown by
convective models moving into the west late this morning and
exiting the east by late afternoon. Primary risk with these 
rounds of convection is flooding given limited instability due to
the atmosphere being worked over continuously. Have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch slightly to the east to account for expected
rainfall and flooding concerns. Could still see a severe threat
with the cluster coming from KS, especially if instability can
push in from the SW as shown by some of the models.

Models then are divided on late day/overnight convection.
Convective models show very little instability to work with, and
therefore show little in the way of convection. Synoptic models
are more enthusiastic in showing widespread convection developing
with ample instability for severe storms. Dynamics will be strong
(height falls from the upper trough moving in, right entrance 
region of the jet, and surface cold front and trough), so if 
instability can build behind earlier convection then the severe 
risk would be solid. If this very conditional threat is realized, 
large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado would 
be possible. Additional rainfall would continue a flood threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

A more typical summertime pattern will become established this
week, resulting in hot and humid conditions with some low end
chances for showers and storms at times, but nothing widespread. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Main convection was east of the terminals with lingering showers
with a few embedded storms still affecting the terminals. Back
edge of showers/storms was getting close to JLN and may end by the
onset of the 18z TAFS. Have included an additional hour to 19z in
the forecast and have it ending in SGF by 20-21z and BBG by
21-22z. Convection has done quite the number on instability and we
are not expecting any widespread redevelopment after this initial
area moves through. Will go with MVFR/IFR conditions in the
convection and mainly VFR after the convection, but could see some
stratus tonight with MVFR conditions returning.


MO...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ055>058-066>070-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ073-097-101.