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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 200514

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1214 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Isolated pulse type showers/storms will dissipate quickly this 
evening, with quiet weather, albeit warm and humid conditions for 
the remainder of the night, with lows in the low to mid 70s. 

Will be watching convective development over Iowa late tonight, 
which models prog to develop into an MCS that will head southeast
Tuesday morning. Model consensus is to have this dive southeast 
across eastern Missouri, just skirting our far eastern counties 
Tuesday. Will confine probabilities to those areas, Otherwise, it 
should be another hot and humid day for much of the area hitting 
heat advisory criteria, with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat 
index values in the 105 to 110 degree range. The only fly in the 
ointment would be the aforementioned MCS and resultant impact over
the eastern Ozarks potentially keeping things below heat advisory
criteria. For now will keep heat headlines as is for the entire 
area until later shifts have a better handle on track of the MCS. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Quiet weather is expected Tuesday evening, but the ridge begins to 
break down later Tuesday night and especially Wednesday. This will 
allow a surface front to eventually drop south into the area later 
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain warm Wednesday with highs in the 
upper 80s to low 90s ahead of the front. Most unstable capes of 2000 
to 3000 j/kg develop during the day Wednesday, with deep layer shear 
increasing late in the afternoon/evening, sufficient for some strong 
to severe storms. The front looks to dive into northern Arkansas 
Wednesday night and Thursday. How far south it gets is still 
uncertain and will eventually lift back northward as a warm front 
later in the week. Chances of rain will then continue each day as 
the front lifts northward into the weekend. Overall, temperatures 
will be closer to seasonal normals Wednesday through Monday, with 
highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s to close 70.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

VFR conditions are expected to persist. There is an outside chance
of some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening,
but chances were too low to put into the forecast.


MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding