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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 161125
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

There is no rest for the weary. After the bout with the winter 
weather yesterday, yet another system that is now over the desert 
southwest is taking aim at the region. There will be a quiet period 
this morning across southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, but 
the next shortwave will lift northeast towards the area this 
afternoon as a surface low develops pushing a warm front into the 
area late this afternoon. The warmest temperatures will likely 
remain along and south of I-44 with areas to the north of I-44 only 
climbing into the lower 30s. As the wave approaches, a strong upper 
level jet will nose into the area late this afternoon. Favored left 
exit region will set up across central Missouri and could start to 
see some precipitation develop as early as mid to late afternoon 
across western Missouri and southeast Kansas. Atmosphere will be warm 
enough south of interstate 44 that would fall mainly as rain, with a 
wintry mix further north. Confidence in onset this afternoon is 
rather low, as some of the models are keeping the precipitation off 
to our west through 00Z. Anything that does fall will be very light.

The bulk of the precipitation looks to fall tonight as the shortwave 
trough becomes negatively tilted as it crosses the region. Central 
Missouri will remain in the favored left exit region of the upper 
level jet during the evening hours for enhanced lift. Cloud ice 
becomes problematic tonight, especially across southern Missouri so 
anything that falls here will be drizzle/freezing drizzle, while 
better cloud ice exits across central Missouri that will produce 
some snow as well as some light freezing rain. The one piece of 
good news is that models are consistent with generating mainly 
light QPF, generally a tenth of an inch or less, so ice and snow 
amounts look to be on the light side with generally a tenth of an 
inch or less of ice accumulation and just a dusting of snow over 
central Missouri. After collaboration with surrounding offices 
will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for all but McDonald and 
Newton counties for tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

There could be some lingering light wintry precipitation early 
Sunday as the aforementioned system exits to the east. Once this 
occurs we will finally have a break in the weather with much of 
Sunday and all of Monday being quiet and even some sunshine. 
Temperatures will remain on the cool side though and generally below 
normal.

The weather looks to become active again in the Tuesday through 
Wednesday time frame and then again late this week with more wintry 
precipitation possible. For the mid week system a continuation of 
southwest flow aloft with a broad trough across the western conus. 
Moisture increases ahead of the trough and both GFS and ECMWF shows 
a warm nose around 850mb pushing into the eastern Ozarks. Given 
relative cold air remaining in place will likely have some 
precipitation type issues one again, especially during the overnight 
hours. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Mainly IFR to lower end MVFR ceilings are found across southwest 
Missouri early this morning. This trend will continue through much
of the day, with a period of VFR ceilings expected from late this
morning into the afternoon hours. However, the next weather 
system will approach the terminals late this afternoon which will 
result in deteriorating flight conditions once again. In addition,
precipitation will overspread the area this evening and continue 
much of the night. Initially it will begin as light rain and 
freezing rain as surface temperatures at the terminals are 
expected to be around the freezing mark. As temperatures cool 
through the evening hours the precipitation will then be mainly 
light freezing drizzle and continue through the overnight hours. 
At this point visibilities should remain in the MVFR category, but
ceilings will drop into the IFR category. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST 
     Sunday for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>092-094>098-
     102>106.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST 
     Sunday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding