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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 220457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Multiple weak short wave troughs are currently translating
northeast across eastern Oklahoma and western Missouri. This has
resulted in scattered to numerous showers and occasional embedded
thunderstorms. Most of the activity has occurred north of the I-44
corridor, however some activity has developed in a weakly capped
environment across south-central Missouri. Rainfall rates have
approached 2" per hour across southeastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri with anomalously high precipitable water values
(2.00-2.25") persisting.

As we head into this evening, coverage of showers and
thunderstorms should actually decrease for awhile with weak short
wave ridging overspreading the area. Meanwhile, a large area of
showers and thunderstorms will develop and become organized along
the I-70 corridor in Kansas and Missouri as a 850 mb jet
strengthens and noses into this region. Additional activity will
develop across western and central Oklahoma as new short wave
energy approaches from the Texas Panhandle.

Both areas of convection should merge and begin to push into
southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri late tonight.
Concerns remain that convection will train late tonight and  
Sunday morning. With a very moist airmass persisting, heavy 
rainfall and the risk for flash flooding is expected. The going 
Flash Flood Watch covers this well.

A synoptic scale trough should then begin to push a surface cold 
front southeast through eastern Kansas and into western Missouri 
Sunday afternoon. This should finally begin to shift the main area
of rain east with time with areas south of I-44 seeing increasing
chances for rain and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Highs on Sunday will be quite variable across the area given the
expected rainfall and passing cold front. Areas of southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may not warm out of the middle
70s. In contrast, areas of south-central Missouri should warm into
the middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Rain will come to an end south of the I-44 corridor Sunday night.
The setup then looks favorable for fog late Sunday night and
Monday morning, especially northwest of I-44 where clouds will
have a better chance of clearing.

Surface high pressure will then settle over the region to start
the work week. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will be the

Global models are then in fairly good agreement that upper level
flow will become confluent over the region with that front
returning north by midweek. This will bring increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms from later Tuesday through Wednesday or
early Thursday.

That front may then lift north of the region for a time later
Thursday and early Friday. However, models then lift strong short
wave energy out of the southwestern U.S. into the region later 
Friday. Thus, active weather may indeed continue. Temperatures 
will start off near normal early next week and will then warm
slightly above normal by late week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to develop over
northeastern Kansas into Nebraska and Iowa this evening. 
Additional development has begun over the last hour along an old 
boundary from northern Missouri into southcentral Kansas. With the
low level jet in advance of the surface front...low level wind 
shear will be possible through about 14z.

This activity should begin to move into the northwestern portions
of the area around 08z and into all three TAF sites by 12z. Expect
mainly showers with some embedded thunderstorms throughout the
day. Will see predominantly VFR conditions across the area through
the period with MVFR in the convective activity and isolated IFR
conditions possible in some of the stronger convective cells.


MO...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for MOZ055-056-066-

KS...Flash Flood Watch through late Sunday night for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann