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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 231734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1234 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

A nw-se sfc front is nearly bisecting the cwfa at 345 am. Just 
starting to see a few showers along the front near and to the sw 
of Springfield. The front is expected to stall close to the 
OK/MO/AR state lines later today and tonight. Isolated 
showers/tstms today will increase in coverage by early 
tonight/this evening as a subtle shortwave moves from OK into 
southern MO. Coverage will be scattered with a few downpours. An 
isolated stronger storm isn't impossible if some stronger 
instability can develop, but overall chances are low. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Wednesday: Looks to be a continuation from today with an upper
level disturbance and associated sfc wave moving northeast through
southern MO. Better rain chances will favor the southeast half of
the forecast area, basically southeast of I-44. The front is
expected to sag far south late in the day and Wed night with 
better chances for precip starting to move south. 

Thursday: A slow moving closed upper low now over the Great Basin,
will shift east from the southern Rockies-southern Plains reaching
the Arklatex and southern MS Vly by late in the day Thu. A 
northern stream shortwave will also be moving quickly through the
Midwest region. This will help maintain rain chances through the 
day and into the early evening before pushing east. The overall 
better chances for rain will again be over the southern portion of
the forecast area. 

Friday-Saturday-Sunday: In the wake of the exiting shortwaves, a 
fast zonal pattern will set up. Sfc high pressure will move 
quickly through Friday. Another sfc low and front will pass 
through late Saturday/Saturday night with some showers/sct tstms.

Monday: We could be looking at the beginning of a pattern change
with better chances for more substantial rain beginning late
Monday (or just a bit later). Global models are in reasonable 
agreement with the chances for a slow moving frontal boundary 
stalling over or near the area. Most of the rain holds off until 
just after this period as the front moves in on Mon. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor radar trends over the next few hours and into

A frontal boundary was stationary across the region, and will
become a focus for showers and thunderstorms. Some of this
activity could directly impact airports.