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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 171942

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
242 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

A mid level shortwave trough over south central IA will move ese-
se into western IL/east central MO by 00z/7pm. Most high res 
guidance has convection developing in varying degrees over our 
eastern cwfa. HRRR might have the best depiction of the evolution 
of the convection (maybe). In general best setup for lift from 
the wave will be late this afternoon and early this evening, 3pm-
7pm. Have seen some updrafts to our east struggle early this 
afternoon, but it looks like stronger convection may have a better
chance during this time. Uncapped high cape/unstable atmosphere. 
Despite high pwats/moisture, some dry air aloft will be able to 
support stronger downdrafts/localized downburst with stronger 
convection if it develops.

Don't plan on any changes to the excessive heat headlines with the
possible exception of south central MO. Heat index values 100-110
are common at reliable observation sites. 

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

No big changes planned. Might make some adjustments/upgrades to
some south central MO counties for excessive heat headlines where
dewpoints are progged to be somewhat higher. In any case, will 
continue heat headlines through Saturday.

A pattern change is still expected next week with a strong upper 
ridge progged to build over the western CONUS. This will put our 
area in northwest flow aloft and it should support an eventual 
cold frontal passage with a drier and cooler air mass moving in late
in the period. We may have to continue the heat headlines for 
some areas into Sunday, but in general cloud cover and eventually 
some showers/storms with the front should cool things down. 

Blended model guidance appears to be under doing rain chances 
late Sunday into Monday. Will watch fcst trends, but believe 
there will be fairly good, albeit short lived chances for precip 
during that time. Global models are more bullish with rain chances
versus the fcst model blend in our database. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. Sfc high pressure shifting off to the 
east will keep very warm/humid conditions in place with moderate south
to southwest wind gusts at times. Scattered showers/tstms will be
possible east of KBBG and KSGF through 18/00z. 


MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ082-083-090>092-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-