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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 231919

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Quite the busy day so far across the area, especially in the
southwest corner of MO where significant and record flooding
occurred in McDonald county. While the flash flood emergency has
ended there, we still have a flash flood warning for the area
through 4 pm. The main squall line has strengthened as it pushed
across our far eastern CWA and is now to the east of the CWA with
trailing stratiform precipitation extending westward across
southern Missouri. The all morning and into the afternoon
convection has put a damper on instability over the area and we
are not expecting much in the way of redevelopment this afternoon
and evening. We will be terminating the flash flood watch early
with the forecast package. (Watch currently goes until 1 AM).

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with low
precipitation chances this evening and with temperatures tonight
and Monday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For this evening and tonight, we are expecting the stratiform
precipitation to end from west to east this afternoon/early
evening. CAMS models do show a few isolated showers/storms
developing, but nothing significant in the wake of this
mornings/afternoons convection. As a result, we will be cancelling
the flash flood watch early. The cold front should pass through
the area tonight with the upper level trough also swinging through
by mid morning on Monday. Expecting generally dry conditions on
Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

In the long term period, we are expecting an amplifying ridge in the
overall upper pattern across the central U.S. which will bring the
typical warm and humid conditions to the forecast area. Some
embedded weaknesses may undercut the ridge and bring about some
scattered convection on a daily basis, but this will not be
widespread like we have been receiving lately. We are expecting
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 on a daily basis with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70. Heat index values will be in the
low to mid 90s on a daily basis.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Main convection was east of the terminals with lingering showers
with a few embedded storms still affecting the terminals. Back
edge of showers/storms was getting close to JLN and may end by the
onset of the 18z TAFS. Have included an additional hour to 19z in
the forecast and have it ending in SGF by 20-21z and BBG by
21-22z. Convection has done quite the number on instability and we
are not expecting any widespread redevelopment after this initial
area moves through. Will go with MVFR/IFR conditions in the
convection and mainly VFR after the convection, but could see some
stratus tonight with MVFR conditions returning.


MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-066>070-

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg