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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 181727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

An upper level trough is currently digging south across the region
and will slowly spread across the area today and tonight as it
closes off into an upper level low. A front is also spreading 
slowly south across the area. The thunderstorms that affected the
area Wednesday evening into the early morning hours today have 
now moved into south central Missouri and on to the east. With 
the upper level system and front slowly moving east today, showers
and storms will continue to develop and track over portions of 
far south central Missouri through much of the day ending this 
evening. One to three inches of storm total rainfall will be 
possible across far south central Missouri through early this 
evening. This rainfall could lead to some flooding and a Flash 
Flood Watch has been issued for area along and southeast of a West
Plains to Eminence MO line through 7pm. 

A cooler air mass will spread into the area today. Highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s are expected this afternoon as lows
drop into the lower 40s tonight. 

Northerly winds gusts up to 30 mph can be expected at times today
as the system tracks through the area. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The upper level low will slowly push off to the east on Friday 
and will keep cooler conditions over the area on Friday as highs 
warm into the 60s. Highs will then return to the 70s this weekend 
as short wave ridging builds over the region. 

An upper level disturbance will then track across the region
Sunday night into Monday and could bring some showers and maybe a
few storms to the area. 

An upper level trough will then slowly spread towards the area
through the middle of next week and could bring showers and storms
to the area at times. Not expecting continuous rain during the 
period, but rain and some storms will be possible at times ahead 
of this approaching system. Highs in the upper 60s to the middle 
70s will occur each day through next Wednesday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The upper low is slow to move out of the region, with lingering
light rain showers and lower ceilings still across southern
Missouri. Widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings will slowly improve at
the terminals this afternoon, eventually becoming VFR and then
remain VFR through 18Z Friday. The pressure gradient will remain 
tight and thus north winds will continue to gust up to 25 knots 
this afternoon before diminishing this evening.


MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ097-098-106.