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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 160820
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
320 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Persistent and training rain and storms were developing across 
eastern Kansas and moving along a nearly stalled 925/850mb front
early this morning. Rainfall rates were estimated between 2 and 3
inches over the past 3 hours. Radar was showing an outflow
boundary moving south which should allow the rain to begin to sag
south as well. 

CAMS models have shown the southward slide of the rainfall as 
well and would expect this to occur through this morning. The one 
concern is the MCV moving across Oklahoma. As this moves east it 
may lead to additional storm development across southwestern and 
southern Missouri and may act to slow the progression of the 
storms to the south. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through 12z 
this morning and will watch the progression of the system to 
determine if it needs to be expanded in time. 

Southerly flow will continue through today as the rather messy
southwesterly flow aloft continues. Several short waves and 
surface features will move through this flow and produce a messy 
forecast for today and tonight. 

There may be a rain free period late this morning into early
afternoon as shown by the CAMS. This would allow the airmass to 
recharge as warm air and moisture advection continues into this
evening. 

One limiting factor for significant storm development tonight will
be extensive cloud cover during the day today and another MCV that
develops and moves across Texas and Oklahoma today. The cloud
cover will limit heating and the MCV may limit moisture. However,
additional storms will be possible and will monitor the latest
short term model trends.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

A slightly deeper upper level trough will move across the plains 
Monday and bring more rain to the area. As the overall upper 
level flow remains quasi-zonal through the middle of the week
additional shortwaves will produce rainfall each day. 

The global models are showing the potential for Tuesday to be
mostly dry through the Day time though shorter range models
produce at least some light QPF. 

This potential brief dry period will give way to more rain as
short wave move across the plains Wednesday and drags a cold 
front through the area into Thursday morning. THis will also act 
to bring northwesterly flow aloft and the first dry day to the 
region on Friday. 

If all the model QPF can be realized there could be 6 or more
inch rainfall totals for some areas by the end of the week. In
general, it looks like a wet week.  

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Convection is developing across the area while additional
convection moves in from the west and southwest. Exact details of
timing and impacts from the convection remains uncertain at this
time, but should impact all TAF sites. 


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ066-077>081-
     088>095-101>103.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Titus