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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 201034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
534 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

All eyes are focused on the MCS taking shape over Iowa early this
morning. Low level jet out of the southwest was aiding in rapid
thunderstorm development in an area of high instability and
moisture. Instability really drops off over eastern Iowa and
propagation vectors show this taking a turn to the southeast later
in the overnight hours. This will affect our forecast later today.

Currently across the area we are still quite warm as of 1 AM with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and dew points in the low
to mid 70s. Yuck. Our main short term focus will be with the heat
and heat index for today across the area. Main fly in the ointment
will be the MCS, and should it track across the eastern Ozarks,
major impacts on temperatures.

In the longer term, frontal boundary will provide thunderstorm
chances and potentially severe weather chances over the area the
next couple of days, with cooler weather expected behind the front
from Thursday through early next week.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Very tricky forecast for today. HRRR right now looks well to far
northeast with the MCS as it evolves the remainder of tonight into
Tuesday. Believe a quicker turn to the southeast is more likely
which would affect central and eastern Missouri counties from late
morning into the afternoon. We have increased pops over those
areas and lowered temperatures due to the expected rain and cloud
cover. There will be a wind risk with the storms over the eastern
Ozarks associated with the MCS. The MCS will likely cause issues 
with our current heat advisory we have going for the entire CWA. 
At this point, with the MCS not having turned southeast yet, do 
not want to cancel any part of the advisory in case it does not 
affect the area. Would hate to cancel then have to reissue later. 
Would rather keep it going and have to cancel later this morning. 
Expecting the remainder of the CWA to reach the advisory criteria 
with dewpoints climbing back into the mid to upper 70s and highs 
in the mid 90s. For tonight, we should see any remaining 
convection diminish by the mid evening hours. New convection 
overnight should remain more focused to our north of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

A surface front will be the focus for thunderstorm development on
Wednesday through Friday with some fairly decent rain amounts
expected during that period, especially Wednesday and Thursday
nights. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s from Thursday through
early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Thunderstorm complex over central Iowa this morning was beginning
to track southeast and will mainly affect the eastern Ozarks later
today. VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites.


MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening 
     for MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg