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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 240010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
710 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Quite the busy day so far across the area, especially in the
southwest corner of MO where significant and record flooding
occurred in McDonald county. While the flash flood emergency has
ended there, we still have a flash flood warning for the area
through 4 pm. The main squall line has strengthened as it pushed
across our far eastern CWA and is now to the east of the CWA with
trailing stratiform precipitation extending westward across
southern Missouri. The all morning and into the afternoon
convection has put a damper on instability over the area and we
are not expecting much in the way of redevelopment this afternoon
and evening. We will be terminating the flash flood watch early
with the forecast package. (Watch currently goes until 1 AM).

Main forecast focus in the short term will be with low
precipitation chances this evening and with temperatures tonight
and Monday.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

For this evening and tonight, we are expecting the stratiform
precipitation to end from west to east this afternoon/early
evening. CAMS models do show a few isolated showers/storms
developing, but nothing significant in the wake of this
mornings/afternoons convection. As a result, we will be canceling
the flash flood watch early. The cold front should pass through 
the area tonight with the upper level trough also swinging through
by mid morning on Monday. Expecting generally dry conditions on 
Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

In the long term period, we are expecting an amplifying ridge in the
overall upper pattern across the central U.S. which will bring the
typical warm and humid conditions to the forecast area. Some
embedded weaknesses may undercut the ridge and bring about some
scattered convection on a daily basis, but this will not be
widespread like we have been receiving lately. We are expecting
highs in the upper 80s to around 90 on a daily basis with lows
from the mid 60s to around 70. Heat index values will be in the
low to mid 90s on a daily basis.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 707 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A few light showers will be possible over the
next few hours with VFR or brief MVFR ceilings. Much of the last
half of the period is expected to be VFR with a clearing sky. Will
monitor for possible brief shallow fog development toward 12z if 
the sky clears faster than expected. 




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg