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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 161055
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
555 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Another hot and dry day is on tap as a strong upper level ridge
remains centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. There will be
too much subsidence and a capping inversion in place to support
any sort of shower or thunderstorm activity. 

With 850 mb temperatures virtually unchanged from yesterday, we 
have gone close to persistence for highs today. Highs will once 
again be in the lower to middle 90s over most locations.
Springfield will be very close to a record high today. See the
Climate section below. 

Dry conditions will then continue for tonight with lows ranging
from the middle 60s over the eastern Ozarks to the upper 60s and
lower 70s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

We have generally gone with a persistence forecast through Tuesday
and Wednesday with very little change to the pattern. The GFS does
break out some convection near the KS/MO border Wednesday
afternoon. We are not buying it at this point as the mid-levels of
the atmosphere look too hostile (warm and dry) for updrafts to 
get going.

There could be a bit more in the way of high clouds especially as
we get into Wednesday. Nevertheless, highs will remain well above
normal Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Some middle 90s will remain quite possible for Tuesday
afternoon.

Global models remain consistent advertising a deep upper level 
trough swinging east across the western U.S. late this work week 
before lifting out into the northern and central Plains from 
Friday night into Saturday. There may be just enough in the way of
height falls on Thursday for a slight chance for a few afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will still remain well 
above normal on Thursday, but may be a few degrees cooler than 
what we experience early this week.

Chances for storms will then increase Friday and especially into 
the weekend with the approach of that main trough and an 
associated surface cold front. The ECMWF and Canadian models also 
bring a disturbance out of the Gulf of Mexico and phase it with 
that approaching trough on Saturday. That scenario would 
certainly add to lift and moisture if it pans out. Cooler 
temperatures are expected for the weekend and early next week 
with readings much closer to normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

VFR will continue through tonight with light south winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019

With temperatures expected to warm into the lower and middle 90s
through Wednesday, here is a list of record highs/most recent 
year set through Wednesday:

                 Today     Tuesday    Wednesday
Springfield     95/1980    96/1953     94/1960
Joplin          98/1980    95/1953     96/1952
West Plains     99/1980    97/1953     96/1972
Rolla/Vichy     96/1954    97/1953     95/1953

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Schaumann
CLIMATE...Schaumann