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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 172358
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Upper level circulation was located over the southwest CWA today
and very slow to move. It has been interacting with high PW values
over 1.5" to produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
The heaviest rain has lifted northward into central MO this
afternoon, with additional more scattered convection now beginning
to develop in areas which cleared out across southern MO. We
issued a flash flood watch for the entire area earlier today until
06z. Main short term focus will be with the potential of flooding
heavy rain across the area the remainder of the day and through
the evening as the upper low eventually shifts east of the area.

More rain chances are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday and
then from the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

PW values were from around 1.5 to 1.7 in. across the area early
this afternoon and some instability was beginning to develop over
areas which have cleared out from this mornings convection.
Showers and thunderstorms were beginning to develop in these
locations with the main convection from earlier now shifting north
of the CWA. Can expect the scattered convection to continue
through the evening hours as the main upper system slowly tracks
east across the area. Most of the convection should end by 06z
with little or no additional convection expected the remainder of
tonight. Tuesday should be mostly dry, but we do have low end
convection chances in the eastern CWA during the afternoon as
instability increases. Thunderstorms are expected to develop with
the next system in the plains during the day and push eastward
into the area Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

By Tuesday night, the convection in the plains will advance into
the area with an upper wave and surface low/frontal system. PW
values still pretty moist around 1.5 in. so heavy rain will again
be likely with the convection. This convection will linger over
the area on Wednesday into Wednesday evening before exiting to the
east by Thursday morning.

There does appear to be a slight dry period beginning Wednesday
behind the upper trough as some ridging builds in. The dry period
may linger for most of the area until late in the weekend when the
next wave moves in on Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

Have introduced fog and low clouds to the forecast tonight given
low level moisture from recent rain, surface ridging moving in,
and light winds. KSGF appears most favored for fog and may end up
with lower visibility and ceiling that currently forecast. Model
sounding for KJLN are more favorable for low stratus, with a combo
of both at KBBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Titus