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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 251058

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
558 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Areas of dense fog has formed over central Missouri in the vicinity 
of a stalled surface boundary and light to calm winds. Visibilities 
are down to one quarter of a mile in some locations, with these
conditions likely to persist into the mid morning hours.

Mid level closed low over southern Oklahoma early this morning will 
lift northeast into southeast Missouri by this afternoon and into 
the Ohio valley tonight. With this track will continue to see a band 
of showers track up across south central Missouri and may expand a
little more to the northwest later this morning into the early
afternoon hours, possibly as far as the Interstate 44 corridor. 
The bulk of the precipitation will then push east of the area this
evening, however a secondary weak shortwave and associated 
surface front drops southeast and may keep some light scattered 
showers around the area through the overnight hours over portions 
of central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks, while clear to partly 
cloudy skies area expected over the western counties. Highs today 
will be the coolest over the eastern Ozarks where the clouds and 
showers will persists, with highs only in the middle 60s, while 
further west, some clearing may occur pushing temperatures into 
the mid 70s over southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Overnight 
lows will drop into the 40s area-wide.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

Quiet weather is expected Friday as high pressure settles into the 
region, and quickly moves off to the south Friday night as the next 
shortwave quickly tracks through the northern Plains. This wave will 
pass across Iowa on Saturday pushing a cold front through the 
region. This will lead to a chance for some showers and perhaps 
isolated thunderstorms for the region. Temperatures will be mild, 
with highs mainly in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

The system pulls out of the region Saturday night, with high 
pressure building across the Upper Midwest from Saturday night into 
Sunday with a return to quiet weather.

As we head into next week the overall pattern looks to become more 
active for southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. Weak ridging 
will be found across the Gulf of Mexico with a shortwave trough 
developing over the desert southwest. This will help set up a 
broad southwest flow with several impulses translating through the
flow from Monday through Wednesday. Increasing low level moisture
will aid in convective potential, with medium range models 
showing the potential for a meandering frontal boundary near the 
area, which will aid in more focus convection. Its too early to 
discern the details, but suffice to say an active spring-like 
period is expected. Overall, it will remain mild through this 
period, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019

An upper level low was lifting northeast towards the area this
morning. Widespread IFR to VLIFR flight conditions were found 
across much of the area. The only exception was at the KJLN 
terminal where ceilings remains MVFR and visibilities VFR. Will 
continue to see these lower flight categories through the morning 
hours today before ceilings and visibilities gradually rise and
eventually return to VFR flight conditions later this afternoon
and evening as the upper low shifts into the Ohio Valley. 


MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ055>058-

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding