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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 250442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

A surface front along with a few showers along the boundary was
pushing across the eastern Ozarks early this afternoon. The
showers should clear the CWA by 21z. Visible satellite was showing
some cumulus directly behind the front, with clearing across the
western CWA. Temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 70s.

The main focus in the short term will be with temperatures and
with thunderstorm chances and increased heat and humidity in the
long term period.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

For tonight, we should clear out this evening with high pressure
pushing east across the area. Winds will become more southerly on
the back side of the high during the overnight hours. Should be a
dry day on Tuesday across the area with highs warming back into
the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

By Tuesday night, a frontal boundary in the northern to central
plains will aid in the development of a thunderstorm complex.
NAMNEST shows this complex diving south across the western half of
the CWA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, so we have increased
our thunderstorm chances and QPF amounts for Tuesday night.

For Wednesday through the remainder of the forecast period, we
will see an upper ridge set up shop across the central U.S. and
temperatures will become more Summer-like with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s each day. Heat index values will be in the low to
mid 90s on a daily basis. After the thunderstorm complex potential
Tuesday night, there are not really many features that would focus
for widespread convection, but instability and moisture may be
sufficient for diurnal scattered storms to develop. Will need to
also watch for shortwave energy undercutting the ridge, which
would also be a potential focus for some convection.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR to start with a weak surface ridge of 
high pressure over the area now shifting to the east. A 
disturbance may bring a chance for a cluster of showers and 
thunderstorms late in the period but confidence is low on the 




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg