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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 230029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)

A large upper level storm system centered over Arizona was
causing the gloomy and damp weather across the Missouri Ozarks 
today. This feature will continue approaching the region from the 
west, forcing additional showers and maybe even a few 
thunderstorms over the next 24 hours. 

We don't think rainfall amounts will be all that great, although a
good coverage of measurable rain will be observed. Amounts 
ranging from one tenth to around one third of an inch is expected.
Perhaps south central Missouri may receive up to a half inch 
toward West Plains and Alton through Saturday. 

Rain will exit the region Saturday afternoon with strong gusty
winds to follow behind a cold front that comes through the area 
Saturday evening. We may need a Wind Advisory Saturday late 
afternoon and into the evening as gusts could reach 40 mph. 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)

The upper air pattern becomes zonal next week with near normal
temperatures. Mostly dry conditions are expected until Thursday as
models indicate increasing moisture in advance of a low amplitude
wave that approaches the Ozarks from the west. 

This system will likely be just a quick shot of widespread
rainfall with amounts around one half of an inch or less. 

A stronger system then approaches Friday, however, moisture
availability looks low at this time.  

I will say the model progs in the long term look much different
than yesterday's runs, so we could see additional big changes with
future runs. Overall though, we could see a longer period of dry
weather, which is something we havn't seen in a while. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

A fairly complex weather pattern is expected over the next 24
hours. Low IFR ceilings with showers will continue during the
overnight hours. Low level wind shear will impact all area
terminals after sunrise with surface winds gusting at times to 35
to 45 mph. showers will continue through the day with slowly
improving ceilings during the afternoon. 




LONG TERM...Cramer