Preview of NWS' New Version of Forecast
This preview is not operational and should not be used for support decisions.

Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 150434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Temperatures are currently in the lower to middle 80s across the
area this afternoon. Instability has increased across the
southeastern Kansas and western Missouri. Capping has weakened 
but a dry air mass is in place and should limit the convective
potential this afternoon into early this evening. Cannot rule out 
an isolated shower across the western Ozarks, but chances are low
and coverage will be very limited. 

Lows tonight will drop into the 60s. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

An upper level ridge will build over the region by Sunday
afternoon and remain across the area through the middle of the
week. This will bring above normal temperatures to the area from
Sunday through Wednesday as highs top out in the upper 80s to the
lower 90s each day. Heat index values in the middle to upper 90s
will also occur. 

The drier air mass will remain in place across the area into the
first half of the week. An upper level disturbance will move from 
the northern Plains across Iowa tonight into Sunday. Showers and 
storms will develop with this system and move into northern 
Missouri tonight into Sunday. Lift will be weaker farther to the 
south and with the drier air mass in place down this way, the 
showers should dissipate before moving into the area. 

An upper level shortwave will flatten the ridge Wednesday night 
into Thursday and will allow a weak front to sag into the area. 
This could generate some showers and storms by Friday. 
Temperatures will be slightly cooler to end the weak, but a big 
cool down is not expected as highs remain in the 80s. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Some high level clouds ocurring across a portion of the area late
this evening. We are not expecting anything but VFR conditions as
upper ridging begins to build back over the region.