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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 240447

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

A stalled front was located roughly along the MO-AR border region
at mid afternoon with a surface low over northeastern OK. An MCV 
from last night's convection was currently moving through 
southeast Kansas. This in combination with afternoon surface 
heating was setting off strong to isolated severe storms along the
front over southern Missouri and primarily showers and a few 
thunderstorms over mainly northern portions of the region. Will 
have to continue to monitor thunderstorms along the front this 
evening as a marginal risk exists for strong winds and large hail.

The surface low over Oklahoma will continue to make its way 
eastward along the front into Wednesday pulling the cold front 
along with it. While the front should be through the area by late 
Wednesday afternoon....showers and thunderstorms will still be 
possible across the area behind the front. 

Lows overnight should generally be in the 50s with the warmest
temperatures over south-central Missouri. Highs Wednesday will be
in the upper 60s to near 70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Both the northern and southern streams in the upper levels will 
be active within this forecast period. A closed upper low over 
the Desert Southwest will make its way into the Southern Plains 
by Wednesday night and will finally push the surface front and the
rain out of the region by Thursday night. Surface high pressure 
moves in briefly on Friday clearing the skies and allowing 
temperatures to rise into the mid 70s.

An upper level system will move from the Northern Plains into the
Great Lakes on Saturday dragging a surface front southward as it
does. Rain chances return on Saturday into Sunday. The front will
stall over northern Arkansas on Sunday before returning northward
as a warm front on Monday. The surface front then meanders across
the region through Tuesday keeping at least a chance of showers 
and thunderstorms in the forecast through the remainder of the 

Temperatures should remain mild through the period. Highs should
be in the low to mid 70s into the weekend...rising into the upper
70s to near 80 early next week. Lows will range from the upper 40s
to the mid 50s rising to the lower 60s by early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

For the 06z TAFS...Frontal boundary remains situated across the
area late this evening. Several waves of showers and embedded
thunderstorms have moved through this evening with the next such
wave to push through SGF between current time and 07z. Main
showers/thunder have probably finished for JLN where IFR stratus
has settled in and should remain there for much of the 06z TAF.
The stratus will eventually build into SGF as well dipping into
IFR overnight. BBG looks like it will have the least impact with
the stratus, but do have some MVFR coming in towards morning and
lingering into Wednesday.