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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 180849

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
349 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

The stretch of above normal heat will continue today as a mid-
level ridge makes its presence felt. Below this ridge, a very hot
and dry continental tropical air mass is settling in. 850
temperatures in the 22-24 degree Celsius range will correlate to 
surface temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s. Meanwhile, heat 
indices will span between 100-108 across the region. No changes 
have been made overnight regarding heat headlines, with areas 
along and north of a Neosho- to- Bolivar- to- Rolla line in an 
Excessive Heat Warning while areas south remain in a Heat 

Breezy conditions are also expected today in areas west of US-65.
Occasional gusts between 20 and 30 MPH will blow from the 
southwest as the surface pressure gradient remains tight in 
between the sub- tropical high positioned to our southeast and low
pressure situated across the Central Plains.

Overnight lows will remain warm as most areas only fall into the
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

The mid- and upper-level patterns will persist through Saturday.
This will keep the forecast hotter and drier than normal. With
daily high temperatures expected to remain in the low-to-mid 90s
and heat indices between 100 and 108, the Excessive Heat Warnings
and Advisories will continue through Saturday.

By Sunday, 500- mb heights begin to decrease across northern
Missouri as the jet stream across southern Canada finally buckles.
Strong shortwave energy will move across the northern US as a
surface cold front begins pushing into the region from the north.
As the front approaches the area, cloud coverage ought to knock
down temperatures a bit for Sunday. The front will also increase 
the chance for showers and storms later Sunday into Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday ought to be dry in wake of the passing
front with temperatures in the lower 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Very little changes or impacts are expected for aviators flying
into the region through Thursday. Surface winds will be gusty and
southerly, otherwise VFR flight conditions will prevail. 


MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ082-083-090>092-

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-



LONG TERM...Albano