Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 202031
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
331 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon generally
along and east of the Highway 65 corridor. Some of the storms
across central Missouri have developed near a remnant outflow
boundary from overnight storms. Storms farther to the south have
developed as convective inhibition weakened with daytime heating.

This activity will continue this afternoon and early evening with
coverage gradually shifting south with time. A Marginal Risk for
severe storms will continue as the atmosphere will remain
supportive of downburst potential. We will also have to watch the
hydro situation as training storms could pose a localized flash
flooding risk.

Outside of the storms, hot and humid conditions persisted this
afternoon with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees.

Storms will diminish by mid-evening with the loss of daytime 
heating. Another complex of storms will then develop later tonight
across the central Plains as a strengthening low level jet 
overrides a surface front. This complex of storms is expected to 
approach central Missouri by around sunrise.

As was the case today, a big concern for Wednesday will be 
whether or not that complex of storms affects portions of central 
Missouri. Current thinking is that most of this activity will miss
the region to the northeast...but not by much. This will 
certainly be a short term forecast challenge.

Outflow from that MCS along with an advancing cold front (may be
one in the same) will then provide a focus for scattered afternoon
shower and thunderstorm potential on Wednesday. There will again 
be a Marginal Risk for a strong to severe storm.

One big question for Wednesday will be temperatures (and heat
indices). Confidence has increased that the front/outflow will not
make it all that far south into the area during the day. Highs
over most areas should therefore make it into the lower or middle
90s.

It is also quite possible that we see moisture pooling ahead of 
the boundary. Thus, heat indices may again push or exceed Heat
Advisory criteria (105 degrees). We have decided to extend the 
Heat Advisory for south-central Missouri as confidence is highest
that heat indices will hit criteria in that region. It is quite
possible that the advisory needs to be expanded to add additional
counties once we get a better feel for the position of that
boundary, as well as expected cloud and thunderstorm coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

That frontal boundary will settle south into the region from
Wednesday night through Friday night or Saturday. We will 
therefore see multiple opportunities for showers and 
thunderstorms. Some localized pockets of heavy rainfall will be 
possible along with a limited risk for strong to severe storms. 
Temperatures will also be cooler with highs expected to be in the 
lower to middle 80s.

We may then see a brief period of dry weather later this weekend
as the upper level flow becomes weak and benign. Global models
then indicate decent consistency with an increasing west- 
northwesterly flow aloft next Monday and Tuesday. This may result
in another frontal boundary moving into the region along with 
returning chances for showers and storms. High temperatures should
remain in the middle to perhaps upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect quiet conditions this afternoon and most of tonight. There
is a very isolated chance for a storm or two near the Branson
airport this evening. 

Rain chances don't increase until tomorrow as a frontal system
sags into the area. Otherwise surface winds will remain from the
south or southwest anywhere from 5 to 15 mph.

Safe Travels. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ097-098-105-106.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-101>104.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Cramer