Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)
000 FXUS63 KSGF 200939 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 339 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 Upper level short wave energy will quickly lift northeast from eastern Kansas into the western Great Lakes today. We will remain in the dry slot region of this departing energy which keeps the door open for drizzle/freezing drizzle into this morning. Inspection of low level moisture profiles indicates that moisture will remain deep enough to support drizzle through 15Z. However, upward omega in the lowest 1.5 km of the atmosphere will really begin to decrease after 12Z. Thus, drizzle will become more patchy in nature as we head into the 12-15Z time frame. We will also have to keep an eye out for fog from now through this time period with short term models trending towards lower visibilities. The big question early this morning will be temperatures. Temperatures from around Pittsburg, Kansas to Buffalo to Rolla, Missouri are still in the 30-33 degree range as of 3 AM. There are also still smaller pockets of 31-32 degree temperatures across southern Missouri. We believe that temperatures between now and 6 AM will warm a degree or two, thus the current plan is to let the Winter Weather Advisory expire then. We will certainly pay close attention to temperature and drizzle coverage trends for the possibility of an extension. Once we get to later this morning, all precipitation should have ended. Clouds will struggle to clear today as low level moisture (925-850 mb layer) will remain rather prevalent. We therefore went on the cool side regarding temperatures with highs over most areas in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees. Areas of south- central Missouri should manage to warm into the lower and middle 40s. Dry weather should then continue into tonight as weak high pressure slides southeast through the Ohio Valley region. There is some concern for fog potential given the light winds and recent moisture, however it appears that skies will remain mostly cloudy over most areas due to high level clouds. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 Upper level southwesterly flow will persist into Thursday with a frontal boundary sharpening up near or south of the I-20 corridor. Weak isentropic upglide in combination with the right-entrance region of an upper level jet streak may be enough for a few showers across south-central Missouri late Thursday and especially Thursday night. Chances for rain will then spread north and increase on Friday and Friday night as that front begins to lift north ahead of developing low pressure across the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be near normal with highs ranging from the middle 40s to the lower 50s. Saturday then looks mild and wet as that low pressure tracks out across the central Plains and then hooks into the southern Great Lakes Saturday night. This system looks like a windy one with global models depicting a rather impressive surface low and pressure gradients. Wind Advisory potential is certainly there if this scenario unfolds. We have maintained chances for thunderstorms from Friday night into Saturday night. There is a limited potential for severe thunderstorms given that this system looks rather dynamic (strong wind shear) and our area will be in the warm sector. The key for severe potential will be how much instability is present. We will also be inserting a limited flooding risk into the Hazardous Weather Outlook for south-central Missouri given saturated ground conditions and what should be a favorable storm track for rainfall amounts of 1" or greater. Depending on the eventual track of the low, there will be a lower end chance for some wrap-around snow across southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri as we head into later Saturday night. The weather then looks fairly quiet for the Sunday/Monday time frame with temperatures pretty close to normal. Global models then depict the potential for a decent cold front moving through next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1219 AM CST Wed Feb 20 2019 IFR and LIFR conditions will persist overnight due to low clouds and areas of drizzle. The drizzle will end and ceilings will begin to improve Wednesday morning. VFR is expected to return by early to mid-afternoon, however questions still remain regarding exact timing. Surface winds will gradually veer around from the southeast to the west through Wednesday. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106. KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schaumann LONG TERM...Schaumann AVIATION...Schaumann