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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 240742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
242 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

An upper level trough of low pressure was approaching the Ozarks
early this morning. Most of the moisture and instability ahead of
this feature had already exited the region, which was keeping
conditions mostly dry across southern Missouri. A few light
showers were present across south central Missouri. Not much rain
was falling from this activity. 

For today, mainly dry and calm weather is expected, with highs
near 80. Cloud cover will be prevalent through much of the
morning, with sunshine expected through the afternoon.

For tonight, lows will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s under
mostly clear skies and light winds. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

There doesn't appear to be any organized synoptic systems that
would create widespread rainfall over the next 7 days. However, we
will need to monitor any weak disturbances that could force some
overnight convective clusters. 

While there appears to be some isolated to scattered convection
possible on Tuesday afternoon, the GFS suggests that nocturnal
storms will develop over northeast Kansas into northern Missouri,
and potentially track south into the Ozarks as we progress into
Wednesday morning. This is highly uncertain, so we will keep pops
at bay through these periods. 

Models indicate that a summertime high will develop across the 
southern High Plains, keeping the Ozarks region on the northeast 
periphery of this high. The models also signal that general 
weakness will occur over this region, potentially triggering 
scattered convection. 

We do think temperatures will trend warmer, with highs in the mid
to upper 80s on an afternoon basis from Wednesday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR to start. Some light rain will occur
along the MO/AR border in the near term but that will move off to
the east over the next few hours. Some lower ceilings are expected
in the 10z-14z time frame with mvfr/ifr ceilings possible in the 
moist air mass that is in place. The lower clouds are expected to 
scatter out fairly quickly in the morning, but will need to watch 




LONG TERM...Cramer