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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 201733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1233 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

Scattered showers along a cold front early this morning were 
continuing across portions of central Missouri and the eastern 
Ozarks, with another batch of showers pushing into far 
southwestern Missouri. These showers will continue pushing 
eastwards across the area before exiting the eastern Ozarks by the
early afternoon as the front slides to our east. Total rainfall
amounts will be less than a quarter inch for most locations. Given
cloudy skies overhead, low temperatures will remain mild in the
low to mid 40s.

Cloud cover will also hang around through much of the day before
beginning to clear from west to east later today as the upper-
level trough slides over the region. Cloudy conditions and
northwest winds behind the cold front will keep high temperatures
much cooler today in the low to mid 50s, with the clearing tonight
allowing for some radiational cooling and low temperatures in the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 419 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

A prolonged period of clear and dry weather will persist from
Wednesday night through the latter half of the work week as high
pressure slides over the area. Plenty of sunshine and relatively
light winds will be in store as we see a warming trend into the
low to mid 60s on Friday afternoon.

The upper-level pattern begins to switch to southwesterly early
Saturday ahead of an approaching low pressure system that will be
pushing across the Great Plains. Global models are still in some 
disagreement as to the timing of the rainfall with this next
system. The ECMWF brings precipitation into the western fringes of
our area as early as midday on Saturday, with a roughly 6 hour
delay for the GFS and Canadian, the latter of which is suggesting
a much drier QPF solution. Regardless, a series of upper-level
disturbances associated with this system will likely keep a slow 
progression of precipitation across the area through Monday night 
or Tuesday depending on which model you favor. The GFS still seems
to be a good middle ground of the global models with how it is
handling this system, so this was kept in mind with the forecast
for that time period.

Instability during the Saturday night to Monday morning period is
relatively low, so we are not expecting any severe weather during
that time period. However, some isolated to scattered storms
mixing in with rain showers will be possible.

An upper-level ridge and surface high pressure move over the 
region late Tuesday into the later part of next week, so quiet
conditions should return to the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2019

A cold front moving across the region was continuing to bring 
MVFR to IFR ceilings to the regions terminals. At the Springfield
terminal, Light drizzle and haze was also providing MVFR
visibilities. The front is expected to continue to move to the 
east through this afternoon with improving flight conditions this 
afternoon and overnight tonight. Surface winds will shift from the
west to the north as the front passes. 




SHORT TERM...DSA/Rothstein
LONG TERM...DSA/Rothstein