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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

                            
000
FXUS63 KSGF 221109
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

A strong low pressure center was continuing to lift north into the
northern plains early this morning. Clear skies and quiet weather
was in place across the Ozarks and southeastern Kansas. This will
change.

The departing low combined with high pressure over Florida will
allow deep and strong moisture advection to occur off the western
Gulf, where buoy readings have dewpoints in the middle and upper 
70s. This Caribbean plume of moisture will stream north across 
the southern plains and into the Ozarks region through today 
thanks in part to a 50 knot low level jet that will nose into 
northeastern Oklahoma early this evening. 

The strong LLJ will help move a warm front north rapidly this 
afternoon. This will help afternoon temperatures climb into the 
lower 80s with dewpoints pushing the upper 60s. With ample 
sunshine expected, moderate to strong instability will occur with
MLCAPE values around 3500 j/kg. Deep shear will develop with 
40-50 kts of 0-6 km sear and low level helicity values in excess 
of 300 m2/s2. 

These ingredients will allow for the development of strong to
severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening, 
continuing into the overnight hours. All modes of severe weather 
will be possible. We have increased forecast hail size to tennis
balls. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Tornadoes are also
possible, while a strong tornado or two can not be ruled out.

In addition to the severe weather, deep moisture streaming into 
the region will bring the potential for training thunderstorms 
across southeast Kansas and western to central Missouri, mainly 
north of I-44. With precipitable water values around 1.5 inches 
this afternoon the potential for 1-2" of rain, with locally 
higher amounts could impact areas that are already flooding. As a
result, a Flash Flood Watch has been issued from 7 pm this 
evening through 10 am Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)

Scattered showers and storms may linger across the Ozarks through
the day Thursday as the warm front lifts across the region. While
many areas will be dry some additional heavy rain may occur. 

A departing surface low and a slight strengthening of the upper
level high over the southeast is forecast to push the storm track
northwest of the area Thursday night and remain in control through
early Saturday. 

A digging upper level trough across the west will nudge the
southeastern high eastward and shift the storm track back towards
the region for the coming holiday weekend. This would allow for
the risk of storms to impact the Ozarks through Monday in
scattered fashion, through many locations may remain dry. So
Memorial Day weekend is not looking like a washout. 

By the middle of next week the upper low over the west will lift
across the plains. The positive tilt of the system may keep 
chances for severe weather low but would allow for additional 
rounds of rain to move over the Ozarks. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

Ceilings will be VFR through this afternoon in advance of showers
and storms that area expected to develop and move into the region
this evening and through the overnight hours. Low level wind 
shear will impact the regions terminals. Where storms occur 
tonight ceilings and visibilities will fall to to MVFR to IFR. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for 
     MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088-089-093.

KS...Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday morning for 
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch / Cramer
LONG TERM...Hatch / Cramer
AVIATION...Hatch