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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 241059

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
559 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

An upper level trough of low pressure was approaching the Ozarks
early this morning. Most of the moisture and instability ahead of
this feature had already exited the region, which was keeping
conditions mostly dry across southern Missouri. A few light
showers were present across south central Missouri. Not much rain
was falling from this activity. 

For today, mainly dry and calm weather is expected, with highs
near 80. Cloud cover will be prevalent through much of the
morning, with sunshine expected through the afternoon.

For tonight, lows will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s under
mostly clear skies and light winds. 

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)

There doesn't appear to be any organized synoptic systems that
would create widespread rainfall over the next 7 days. However, we
will need to monitor any weak disturbances that could force some
overnight convective clusters. 

While there appears to be some isolated to scattered convection
possible on Tuesday afternoon, the GFS suggests that nocturnal
storms will develop over northeast Kansas into northern Missouri,
and potentially track south into the Ozarks as we progress into
Wednesday morning. This is highly uncertain, so we will keep pops
at bay through these periods. 

Models indicate that a summertime high will develop across the 
southern High Plains, keeping the Ozarks region on the northeast 
periphery of this high. The models also signal that general 
weakness will occur over this region, potentially triggering 
scattered convection. 

We do think temperatures will trend warmer, with highs in the mid
to upper 80s on an afternoon basis from Wednesday through Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
need to monitor for some lower ceilings this morning. 

An upper level disturbance was approaching the region from the
west, and will cause a short term drop in ceilings this morning.
We could experience IFR ceilings for 2 to 4 hours at all three TAF

Cloud cover will clear out by mid day, giving way to fair weather
VFR conditions. 

Safe Travels. 




LONG TERM...Cramer