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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 170910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

A mid level shortwave trough was traversing the area early this 
morning, with a weak surface low over southern Missouri. RAP Bufkit 
soundings showing very dry mid levels with no cloud ice.  Surface 
temperatures were in the upper 20s to lower 30s. As a result, a 
large area of mainly freezing drizzle was located across southeast 
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks. The system will pull east of the 
area this morning, with the residual freezing drizzle ending by mid 
to late morning. Thus will go ahead an extend the winter weather 
advisory through 15Z.

Winds will become northwest this afternoon advecting in somewhat 
drier air and could see a little decrease in clouds across the west, 
but for the most part it will remain mostly cloudy through the day. 
With the snow and ice still on the ground and clouds expected will 
not see a big rise in temperatures, but should get above the 
freezing the mark.

Quiet conditions will prevail tonight as Canadian high pressure 
noses into the region. Some clearing is expected, thus will see 
temperatures drop into the teens and wind chill in the single digits 
to lower teens as a result of a 5 to 10 mph northwest wind. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Sun Feb 17 2019

The area will remain in southwest flow all the way through Saturday, 
with several systems likely to affect the region, so expecting a 
relatively active week. The week will start rather quiet as the 
aforementioned Canadian high remains the main weather player for 
Monday. This will keep temperatures on the cool side though, with 
highs only in the 30s, with perhaps a few low 40s over south central 

Attention then turns to a potent mid level shortwave that lifts out 
of the desert southwest on Tuesday. A surface low is expected to 
develop along the Texas coast and push northeast Tuesday afternoon. 
Isentropic lift over its attendant surface boundary and associated 
northward push of moisture will result in increasing precipitation 
chances Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday morning. 
Boundary layer temperatures support rain possibly mixed with snow at 
the onset, however the 00Z model runs are indicating a warm nose 
pushing into about the southeast half of the forecast area, with 
surface temperatures ranging from around the freezing mark along the 
Arkansas border, to the upper 20s over portions of southeast Kansas 
and western Missouri, with the other note of concern being the model 
advertising a mid level dry slot working its way across the region. 
Bottom line would be more ice potential for the area than previously 
thought and could result in some ice accumulation for areas mainly 
north of highway 60. Still some time to discern the details and the 
forecast will likely change over the next day or two.

After a brief break Wednesday, the next in a series of waves will 
lift through the southwest flow bringing another chance for 
rain/snow to the region Thursday and Thursday night with another 
system possible by the weekend. However, the weekend system looks to 
be mainly rain as a warming trend is expected late this week with 
highs returning to the 50s for Saturday. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1107 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Another wave of energy was pushing through the area tonight with a
mix of wintry precipitation. Some freezing drizzle has occurred
for much of the evening and am starting to see some better returns
on radar moving in from OK and southeast KS. More than likely, a
bit of light rain, possibly mixed with some sleet. There is some
cloud ice, however soundings show a very dry layer below the cloud
ice which would keep the predominant precipitation as freezing
drizzle overnight. Am going with mostly IFR throughout the
overnight and into the early part of Sunday morning, before
conditions start improving...with freezing drizzle much of the
night. Conditions should improve by late morning and through the
afternoon with MVFR and eventually VFR conditions by mid afternoon
and evening.


MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for 

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ073-



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding