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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 221110 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
606 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

..12z TAF Update..

Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

An MCV can be seen on radar early this morning moving across
portions of Camden, Laclede, and Dallas counties. Heavy rainfall
in this area has prompted a pair of Flash Flood warnings as
regional rainfall gauges have recored at least 3 (and up to 5) 
inches, much of which has fallen in a couple of hours.

Luckily, this complex of showers and storms is not training. This
is due in large part to a potent shortwave energy digging NW-SE 
across the central Missouri. Nevertheless, with substantial PWAT
values, these showers and storms have been very efficient as they
move slowly along and ahead of the surface front.

With a lot of outdoor recreation ongoing during this part of the 
summer, campers will need to be wary of rises and currents in 
creeks and streams. Those in the Montauk State Park area will need
to be especially careful given the heavy rainfall that has moved 
over the park this morning. 


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

The current placement of the surface front is not clear, as a
series of outflow boundaries have modified the low- level wind 
field. Better defined is the 850- mb front, which currently
extends from Ft Scott to Columbia. Drizzle or light rain may
linger into early afternoon behind the surface front as rich 
moisture in the lowest 5,000 ft gets squeezed out by the
approaching 850- mb front.

A pair of 300- mb jet maxima will phase together over the Upper- 
Mississippi Valley today. In response, the 500- mb flow will
become amplified and carve a longwave trough deep into the 
eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, strong shortwave energy will round the
500- mb ridgeline and dive toward northern Missouri by evening.
This will effectively push the 850 mb front through the Ozarks as
strong surface high pressure begins building in behind it.  A 
much cooler and drier air mass will settle in behind the departing
850- mb front.

Temperatures today will be influenced by extensive low-level cloud
cover and cold air advection. Expect highs to only top out in the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

Expect dry and stable conditions with below normal temperatures 
Tuesday through Friday as surface high pressure continues to build
along the east side of the 500- mb ridge. Daily high temperatures
will range from the low 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows near

Model guidance shows a little more variability going into the
weekend, but the general trend shows the upper-level ridge
flattening out as strong shortwave energy moves across southern
Canada. Temperatures could moderate into the upper 80s by Sunday 
as mid-level heights increase across our region and low-level
moisture returns.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2019

MVFR to IFR flight conditions can be expected across the southwest
Missouri terminals through 18z. Abundant moisture in the lowest
5,000 feet ahead of an 850- mb front will likely yield drizzle or
light rain showers through 18z. Behind frontal passage, skies 
clear out quickly and VFR returns. This will likely occur between 

Surface winds will be breezy today and from the north. Gusts
between 20 and 25 kts will be possible as the cold front passes
through the region.


MO...Flash Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ070-071-



LONG TERM...Albano