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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 210737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

As of 2 AM, most of the forecast area has seen some relief from
the warm nighttime temperatures with readings in the upper 60s to
low 70s. The exception would be the far southwestern portion of
the CWA which was still in the low 80s. Dew points were from the
mid 60s to low 70s. Convection has fired up from southeast
into central Nebraska and also over east central Kansas near
Emporia. This area had decent elevated CAPE values and the low
level jet was beginning to develop into the area. Main question
during the remainder of the overnight hours is how far southeast
the currrent convection will make it. For the remainder of the
short term, the focus will be with heat and humidity again in the
far southern CWA and with convection moving into and redeveloping
along boundaries moving towards the area from the north.

Some decent QPF totals are forecast over the next few days as the
front slowly moves through and the main long term focus will be
with thunderstorm intensity and potential for flooding.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

For today, front/outflow boundary will likely push into central MO
with convective precipitation chances increasing over our northern
counties by sunrise or shortly thereafter. Could be earlier if the
convection near Emporia begins to dive southeast. Further south in
the CWA, temperatures should warm back into the mid 90s and heat
index values around 105 to 108 along the MO/AR border. Will be
extending the current heat advisory westward along the MO/AR
border and also Newton, Christian and Douglas counties. Parts of
southern MO could see some afternoon convection developing as well
as instability increases. Much of the CWA is in a marginal risk of
severe weather and the main risks will be with large hail to the
size of golf balls, and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.
Additional convection is expected tonight as the front begins to
slowly push south through the area. Heavy rain and a continued
marginal risk of severe storms are possible with the stronger

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

With the front not moving much further south of the area and upper
energy moving from west to east across the region as well as some
nighttime low level jet interaction, the risk of some strong to
marginally severe storms along with heavy rainfall will persist on
Thursday into Friday. We are getting some fairly decent QPF
amounts, especially over southeast Kansas into west central MO
over the next several days, so will probably be adding some
limited flooding mention in the morning hazardous weather outlook.
Temperatures will be cooler behind the front back down in the 80s
instead of the 90s we've been getting lately.

Convection chances will linger into the first part of the weekend,
with drier conditions expected by Sunday as an upper trough shifts
through. Will start to see temperatures creep back up into the
upper 80s by Sunday into early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Quiet weather overnight will be in place across the region.
Showers and storms may develop late morning and into the 
afternoon with the potential for storms mainly during the 
afternoon into the evening. 


MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ097-098-105-106.



SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg