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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 251640

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)

It was a quiet night over extreme southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. Temperatures cooled into the upper 50s under
clear skies and light winds. 

For today, temperatures will quickly warm into the mid and upper
80s while humidity increases. We decided to keep pops out of the
this afternoons forecast given the inhibition forecasted by all
the models along with mid level dry air that remains in place
through this evening.  

There is a chance that a nocturnal cluster of thunderstorms
develops over eastern Kansas and shifts into western Missouri late
tonight into early Wednesday morning. Tonight's precipitation
chances are very uncertain, therefore we kept chances low at this
point until we can gain some confidence. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)

We could experience a few isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. Most locations should remain
dry as summertime pulse convection ingredients aren't quite ideal
just yet, with mixed layer inhibition being the main negative. 

Overall mean ridging will be the main pattern over the Ozarks
Region through Thursday and Friday, however, models do indicate
some weakness in this ridge near the Ozarks, which could favor
some showers. Again, we believe most locations could remain dry
the entire week. 

As we progress into the weekend and next work week, medium range
models show a summertime high developing over the desert
southwest. The Ozarks will be positioned on the northeast
periphery of this ridge, bringing rain chances to the area, with
most of it being in the form of nighttime thunderstorms. 

Temperatures over the next several days will warm into the 80s and
low 90s on an afternoon basis. 


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

For the 18z TAFS...Currently clear sky across the area. Main
frontal boundary was well to the north of the area, with a thermal
cap in place over the forecast area. A lot of uncertainty with how
thunderstorm complex will evolve north of the area tonight and for
that reason have left out thunderstorms from the 18z TAFS and kept
VFR conditions going through the period.




LONG TERM...Cramer