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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 212026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
226 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Deep southwest flow aloft was ongoing across much of the southern
and central section of the United States this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a very dry airmass was present underneath this flow,
causing virga over the Ozarks. 

We think southern and south central Missouri will eventually
moisten up sufficiently for some light rain tonight, especially
across the eastern Ozarks, which is where we have the highest

Amounts will remain below one quarter of an inch, and some
locations may not get any measurable precipitation at all. 
Look for overnight lows to fall into the 30s overnight. 

Much of Friday looks dry, although we can't completely rule out a
few showers as the Ozarks airmass continues to moisten. With
mostly cloudy skies, highs on Friday are expected to warm into the

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

A large upper level storm system will approach the region late
Friday night into Saturday. Showers and even a few thunderstorms
will be possible. Some organized storms can not be ruled out over
south central Missouri. 

This system will be progress through the region rather quickly,
therefore we are not anticipating excessive rainfall.  

Saturday through much of next work week looks to start an extended
period of dry weather. Mild temperatures will also occur with
highs on Saturday in the 50s and 60s. High in the 50s from Sunday
through Tuesday will follow. 

Beyond Saturday, our next chances of rain may not occur until late
next work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019

VFR conditions will persist through at least 00z this evening.
Ceilings will gradually lower from 06z through the end of the TAF
period as rain moves into the region from south to north. MVFR and
patchy IFR will be the rule from 06z onward as light rain overspreads
the Missouri Ozarks.

Surface winds will generally remain southeasterly at 5-10 kts.




LONG TERM...Cramer