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Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)

Issued by Springfield, MO (SGF)

FXUS63 KSGF 210452

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Showers and isolated storms were spreading northward across the 
Ozarks the afternoon. This was occurring as the northern edges of
the remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda was moving across the
southern plains. Precipitable water values were rather high with
from 1.7 to 1.9 inches across the area and continued moisture
advection expected. 

This activity is expected to continue into this evening though
coverage should less towards the overnight hours. The cloud cover
and rainfall will help keep temperatures in check overnight and 
into Saturday with lows around 70 degrees and afternoon highs 
Saturday in the low 80s. 

Moisture advection will continue Saturday with showers and 
scattered storms throughout the day. This will occur as a cold
front begins to make its way across the plains and towards the

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

As the cold front moves into eastern kansas and northern 
Missouri, increasing lift will act to enhance lift and the 
potential for heavy rainfall and also some strong to severe 

Initially, as the front approaches overnight Saturday into Sunday
morning, the best potential for severe weather will be across the
far northwestern portions of the area from Nevada to Versallies 
and north. This area may also see some training of storms which
could lead to isolated flooding. 

The front will move through the region on Sunday and bring
continued potential for strong to severe storms and flooding as 
moisture advection will continue ahead of the front. We decided 
to hold off on and flood headlines as the best axis for heavy 
rainfall appeared to be across northern portions of Missouri and 
eastern Kansas based on the latest models. This will be re- 
evaluated over the next few models runs. Showers and storms will 
continue Sunday night into Monday morning before finally exiting 
the region. 

Temperatures next week will be near normal for this time of year
with slight rain chances nearly each day. Overall, it appears to
be a fairly wet period in store the the Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas, but the cooler temperatures will be welcome. 


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Ceilings have been hovering between MVFR and VFR for most of the
evening over the central and western sections of the CWA and this
trend will continue through the overnight. Winds will stay
up...and may occasionally gust to near 20kts in KSGF...which will
mitigate any fog formation.  

Will begin to see shower activity move in from the west towards
morning. Shower activity will be on the increase during the day on
Saturday with a few embedded thunderstorms within this activity.